Weekly Price Action Chart Outlook | Nov. 4th-9th
The Euro sold off back to back weeks for only the second time since Sept. The pair was holding fine till the surprised NFP number which beat expectations by more than 1 sigma. Now the pair is threatening to break the weekly 20ema which hasn’t been done in almost two months. Should the pair take out this defense, the next key support levels would be the 1.2751 and 1.2645 levels. Bears meanwhile can look to sell on rallies to the 1.3000 level.
Selling off for 3 of the last 4 weeks, and 5 of the last 7, the Dow Jones is starting to show a lot of technical cracks in it. Last week formed an inverted pin bar, which is really (from a price action perspective) a failed attempt to rally. Now the bears will be gunning to take out a key support level at 12950. Should this break, along with a daily close below 1400 in the ES, I suspect we could see some serious unwinding in the US indices, especially after the US election come Tuesday. Bears can look to sell on rallies up to 13300 while bulls can see if the main level will hold before getting long, but below this key 12950 level, we have 12800 and 12517.
Now selling off for a fourth week in a row (something the precious metal has not done all year), Gold is sitting on top of a key level at $1675 which was the weekly high from the breakout bar during the summer consolidation. If this level gives way, then we could see a full retracement back to $1636 where the breakout began. I suspect if it does, bulls will come back into the market and be happy to buy at those prices. But for now, bears are in complete control short and medium term. $1710 becomes key upside resistance for bulls to crack short term, and bears to look at a possible level to sell.
Selling off impulsively for 6 of the last 7 weeks, it is no surprise during election season that we’d see crude oil prices fall. Crude is now sitting at the $84.81 key support area, and below this, we could see a full retracement of the recent bull run from July, back down to $77.21. With bears clearly in control, expect selling pressure to resume and watch for a possible breakout pullback setup at the $84.81 level to get short. Bulls can look for longs around $80.00 and $77.21 but watch for weakness heading into those levels before getting long.
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