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Weekly Forex Price Action Setups | Aug 4-9
EURUSD – Uptrend Intact But…
After reaching a high of 1.3342 last week, the Euro sold off for 24hrs straight, bottoming around 1.3200/3190. From here it formed a 4hr pin bar, and then bounced from the NFP announcement. Although the uptrend is still intact, it’s sitting just below the 1.3342 resistance, and key level at 1.3390/3400 which is the June swing highs. Sellers are likely placed here and should test the bulls resolve, so expect some likely push-back from here. Bears can watch for 4hr or intraday price action signals at this level, while bulls have to play the short term range buying just above 1.3200.
GBPJPY – Breaks Higher After Consolidation
In our Aug. 1st commentary we discussed the GBPJPY consolidation and that a breakout to the upside was likely. This was due to the double bottom and 1hr pin bar we discussed, along with the counter-trend impulsive move suggested more upside. The pair did just that, gaining over 100 pips from the consolidation. During the volatile NFP announcement, the pair dipped, testing this consolidation highs, only to bounce off of it another 60+ pips confirming the buyers were in control short term. Any corrective pullbacks towards 150.60/80 area should be watched for intraday buy signals. Upside resistance is at 151.92 and 152.33. Only a 1hr break and close below 150 negates our short term bullish view.
Gold – Complex Bottom Gaining Steam
On July 10th I talked about Gold forming a complex bottom as it had broken above the daily 20ema during a 7/10 day bull run along with a series of HLs (higher lows). I followed this up with a trade reco to buy a breakout pullback setup which profited over +1500 pips. After consolidating its gains and running into resistance around 1340, the PM dipped prior to the NFP report, but bounced over $30 to close up on the day forming a pin bar signal.
A nicely done COT analysis courtesy of Sentimentrader.com shows how the commercials are long gold at record levels while record short speculative positions are starting to turn (which would fuel the recovery as they cover – chart below).
This to me suggests along with the building price action structure that gold is indeed forming a complex bottom which is gaining strength. Thus, I’ll look to buy pullbacks between 1297 and 1269, targeting 1339, 1421 and potentially 1472. Clearing this last level opens the door for a return back to 1500+. Only a breakdown below 1180 would negate my bottoming structure view.
Make sure to check out my latest article on Why We Close Winning Trades Early.
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