Ichimoku Report April 12th
EURUSD – Trying to Climb Higher
After failing at a second attempt to break the 10′ lows, the pair formed a stiff rejection last week and posted its 2nd weekly decline – something it has not done since Nov. 09′. Combine this with a decent start and the pair may get a boost from the Greek short term bailout. However the Kumo ahead suggests upward gains will be more than hard fought and the line of least resistance is still down. The 20ema is also falling which will provide another test. We only like buying at the lows posting at 1.3283 and selling just shy of 1.3800 for now. Everything in between is a mess and only suitable for quick day trades.
GBPUSD – Almost there
Roaring back for two straight weeks, the pair has gotten impulsively bullish and threatening to attack the 20ema which lines up the next challenge for the pair. If you want to sell, we feel this is the best location in the near term. Beyond that you will have to wait till the 1.5820 which is the Kijun / 61.8%Fib combo which should be interesting. The pair is also attempting to break the 38.2% fib which has held 1st attempts. There are no clear buy levels at this point or are too far away so take short day trades if you are a bull and exit before the end of day. The Kumo is thick suggesting its going to have to earn any gains till early fall this year.
AUDUSD – Heading back to Expanding Triangle?
After posting another strong gain and close last week, the pair has started a small retreat just shy of the 09′ highs. This is not surprising so we feel the upper trendline from the 5mos expanding trendline will be the next place for bulls to get in. Should the pair fail there and close strong into the expanding triangle, then the move could be a bull trap and failure which would suggest a deeper unwinding. This would have to break past the rising Tenkan, 20ema and Kijun 1st which should attract some buyers. With the weekly TKx happening last week, the pair could be making another run for parity.
USDCAD – Will it close below Parity?
Everytime the pair makes some gains, it gets rejected within 24hrs. The last time it has posted a double weekly gain was way back in Jan. where it met the Kijun and failed starting a 700+pip selloff. Ultimately, we’d like one more push higher off of parity to sell it for a break and close below. The 38.2% fib which was the highs for March this year offer a great location to sell. Intraday traders can get aggressive and sell just below 1.0100 and take profit just shy of parity. Ultimately, with the falling Tenkan and 20ema, we feel its only a matter of time before the pair gives way.
EURJPY – 3rd weekly close above 125.00. What’s next?
After rejecting off the Tenkan and bouncing quite strongly to close the week above 125.30, the pair has started off with gains for this week. The last 2weeks high will undergo another stress test just shy of 128. After that, there is another stern upside test waiting at the 128.75 / Kijun junction. Should the pair close above those levels, we feel the 20ema will support on most dips and the upper edge of the Kumo will be under the gun at 133.50 which is another 450pips higher. Short term supports minor upside gains which could accelerate.
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