Forex Ichimoku Trade Setups – Nov. 15th

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EURUSD – Likely top in place
After being above the Kijun for almost two months, the pair has finally failed and closed below it suggesting the trend has been either ended or significantly weakened.  But what amplifies this is how it broke the Kijun.  The pair initially made a yearly high around 1.4157 and then pulled back only to start another run up and make new highs around 1.4284.  From there, the pair failed immensely and has sold off 4 of the last 6 days shedding over 660 pips since then. We would like to note in an interview on Oct. 23rd with FXStreet we called a top in EURUSD at the 1.42 level.

From an Ichimoku perspective, the Tenkan and Kijun have rolled over for the first time in 2+ months and the pair is dangerously close to the Kumo.  Should it penetrate into the Kumo, this will increase the probabilities of a move back to 1.3300.  Should a daily close below the Kumo ensue a penetration, we expect a min. move to the aforementioned level and then onto 1.3000 and 1.2586.

GBPUSD – Holding Up But for How Long?

Performing better than the EURUSD, the pair (we think) has been artificially held up by EURGBP sales.  The pair has managed to hold above the 20ema and Kijun finding buyers here but its not making any new highs or even challenging the previous highs at 1.6300.  Should the pair take out the two aforementioned lines, we feel a Kumo touch is likely.  We also feel any penetration will likely result in a Kumo break which could result in further losses pushing the pair down to 1.55 and the mid 1.53’s.  People who want to get long can use the 20ema and Kijun with tight stops below while bears can take a daily close below them or any move back up to the 1.63 highs.

USDJPY – Bottom in Place
As we had suspected, we feel the bottom for the USDJPY is in place in the low 80’s and for several reasons.  First off, the pair has taken out the 20ema and Kijun on its own power (meaning without BOJ intervetion) and its done so with easy being bought up 8 out of the last 11 days.  Secondly, after breaking above the Kijun and 20ema, the pair pulled back to test the 20ema only to find more buyers there and since then has climbed over 110pips.  The pair is super close to challenging the Kumo which has a ‘Kumo Window’ where price is now up till the 21st of Nov. so we feel this is an opportune time for the pair to reverse and break the Kumo.  Any daily close above it will likely bring in buyers and further confirm the bottom in place.  Dips to the 20ema can be used for buys.

USDCHF – Kumo Penetration
For the first time since late June of this year, the pair has penetrated the Kumo.  What is interesting about this is a) the pair has done this with 7 days of straight buying and b) its done this following a higher low being made which are both bullish signs for the pair and a likely bottom in place.  The pair has its challenges ahead at .9935 which is a previous role-reversal level and the Kumo which is quite thick and extends to about parity but should we see any daily closes on the other side of the Kumo, we expect a move back to 1.0347 likely before year end.  For more information about Role-Reversal price action setups, check out the article by clicking on the link above.

EURGBP – Dangerously Close to Kumo Break

After running from June till Nov. starting sub 8100 climbing to 8950, the EURGBP has taken a serious tumble in the last 2 weeks dropping 500pips and losing ground 11 out of the last 15 days.  In that process, the pair has taken out the 20ema and Kijun which held for almost 7 weeks but also penetrated deeply into the Kumo which had gone untouched since mid Sept.  The pair has found support at the very bottom of the kumo and yet to post a daily close below it but it looks like a matter of time.  Any daily closes below the Kumo suggest a likely move to 8375 and then possibly down to 8200 and 8150.  We really have no reason to be buyers now with the force of this sell-off and we expect daily closes below the Kumo to go no higher than 8550/8600 on any pullbacks.

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