New York Daily Close Charts

Today I wanted to cover an important topic that has been widely discussed, but heavily misunderstood. There has been this propagated myth the NY Daily Close Charts are the best time frame charts for trading. The theory goes they offer a true forex 5 day week, instead of the 6 candles from the 00.00 GMT candle open, or the European Open (GMT +3).

The ‘theory’ behind this is the extra 6th candle throws the price action off, and that systems do not perform as well when using the 6 day weekly charts as opposed to the 5 day charts.

But has anyone ever backed this up with statistics? Anyone offered a shred of proof that a pin bar, or inside bar, or and price action strategy would perform worse under the 6 day weekly charts as opposed to the 5 day weekly charts?

No……until today.

I recently ran the stats on one of my price action systems called the sBar, which was not built for any specific time frame – just a price action pattern I noticed that often led to an excellent trading setup. It is based on the underlying order flow behind the price action which usually suggests a likely with trend break.

For 2013 – we ran the stats again being a new year, and the results were interesting when you compared the UK GMT 00.00 daily candle open with the NY Daily Candle Close (5pm EST time). Here are those stats below;

FXCM UK 6 Daily Candle Close 00.00 GMT Time
-9 Pairs that made the cut for min. performance profitability
-Across 4 Time Frames (Daily, 4hr, 1hr, 30m)
-22 Profitable Possibilities (i.e. AUDJPY daily = 1 possibility, 1hr = 1 possibility, 30m = 1 possibility)
-Avg. Hit Rate Across All Pairs/Time Frames = 60.8%

NY Daily Candle Close 5pm EST time
-11 Pairs that made the cut for min. performance profitability
-Across 4 Time Frames (Daily, 4hr, 1hr, 30m)
-24 Profitable Possibilities
-Avg. Hit Rate Across All Pairs/Time Frames = 56.28%

Now looking at the stats above, we can see that although the NY Daily Close did have 2 more pairs that made the cut, and 2 more profitable possibilities (9% difference), the system actually across all pairs had a lower hit rate by over 4.5%.

If the NY Daily Candle Close Charts are that much superior, you’d think they’d perform better in the hit rate for sure – but they don’t, they perform worse!

A test on another system showed the exact same profitability whether you were trading the NY Daily Close or FXCM UK GMT Close.

How could this be if the NY Daily Close Charts are so superior?

The statistics alone should be spawning several questions in your mind, such as;

1) If the NY Close Charts are not superior, what does this mean for me and my system?
2) Should we still trade them, or should we switch to the UK GMT Charts?
3) Should we be asking for data behind a system being promoted as only being effective on the NY Daily Close Charts?

These are just some of the natural questions you should be asking when someone promotes a NY Daily Close Chart as the only effective charting for trading price action – because the data and statistics simply do not support this.

One last point I want to mention here – is that most of the options out there being suggested are for Pepperstone or Axi Trader (both using MetaTrader 4).
Although MT4 does have some uses if you are trading algo based systems, its execution on short term, or market orders is quite inferior.

In a follow up article, I’ll be discussing another platform option which I find to be superior to MT4 in terms of execution, charting, and ease of use.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

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  • Stan

    Hello Chris,
    Great article! This is one of those issue’s that gets in the back of the mind and just churns around. I have wasted a lot of time on this and finally just gave up and stayed with my Midnight NY charts from OANDA whom I have had great performance and an all around great experience with.
    I look forward to the info on the alternate platform.
    I actually looked into an independent platform called MotiveWave that could be used on multiple brokers and had a lot of very nice stuff and Great charts. Still have information on it. It is a good thing to have rolling around in the back of the mind!
    I hope you and yours are well and you had a prosperous week and a great weekend lined up!

    Best wishes,

  • Tony

    i’ll be interested in your article on charting…..the charts you have on this site look like fx trek charts which ive been considering using instead of mt4 which i find a little clunky……however, ive just found out that the fx trek chart service is closing on 30 june, i guess because most of the forex brokers provide free charting and fx trek isn’t inexpensive…..

    • Hello Tony,

      Yes, I am somewhat saddened to hear about FXTrek closing. I have been using them since 2004 and know them inside and out. Hard to imagine using another set of charts, but one must change with what is in front of them.

      And yes, because most charting is free now, unless the charting service offers something really special or unique, it would be hard to compete, as it was for this model.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

  • Tony

    hi again chris…..i was ready to go with fx trek so im gutted they are closing their doors…..look forward to your article on the platform you think is better than mt4 as i want to get away from using it……

  • mike

    Hey Chris,

    I always thought not enough attention has been given to the charting software,
    I’ll be looking for more of your articles in the future.

    Thank you ,

  • Rod

    This is a very interesting topic that I just recently started to analyze. Seems to me, that price will go in the direction that price will go. If there is a daily signal on either NY daily or European daily chart, it will have a good chance of success.

    However, I’m not sure I understand the validity of your statistical study, since any time frame 1 hour and less would be the same regardless of which chart you look at. A more telling statistical study would only compare the daily and 4 hour time frames only, since these are actually different between NY close and European close. Including time frames that are the same in both charts would seem to cloud the real differences between the 2.

    • Hello Rod,

      Yes, a good point about it ‘doing what it’s going to do’.

      However, your comments on the 1hr chart are not entirely accurate. Why? Because each broker on the market open does something different with their partial hour of price action. Almost all brokers open at 5.15pm EST, 5.30pm EST, or some partial hour open to start the week. However, how they use that partial hour and put it on the chart is different. Some add it to the last hour of price action on friday. Some on Monday, some on the 5pm hour on sunday, while others the 6pm, so because of this, all 1hr data will be slightly different, and thus not a perfect comparison.

      But we’ve run it on the 4hr and daily charts – its the same as there are differences because of 4hr start times, but no real edge across the NY chart close. Same with the daily, so we already address this which you can find in the follow up article to this.

      But good questions indeed.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

  • Rod


    I appreciate your added clarification, I was not aware of. When I compared hourly charts, NY/European, I didn’t see any significant difference, maybe as you mentioned broker dependent. And I think ultimately we are in agreement, as I don’t think there is an advantage, one chart over the other (i.e. NY verses European). I’ve reached the conclusion that both NY and European charts can provide signals worthy of consideration. But I’m open to consideration, if there is reason one is really better than the other, just don’t see it, as they both seem to provide good signals.

    Even when one provides a clear signal that doesn’t show in the other, the price typically seems to follow whichever one shows the signal. I’ll continue monitoring both. And I have a good start today, with the NY showing a really good bullish pin bar for USD/JPY. While the hourly shows potential for an intermediate pull back, we’ll see if ultimately, it respects the NY signal and advances…

    And finally, I’d think it would be easier for all traders, if everyone followed the same charts, we’d have less false signals. But I guess that would make it too easy for us 🙂

    Thank you for your thoughts and insight…


    • Hello Rod,

      Although I think its a useful on one hand that traders all follow one chart, the bottom line is we have such a diverse group of traders who have their various reasons for trading, and they may see it differently then us. Thus, I think we have to embrace it, instead of force people to all use one daily close. So the option is to adapt and understand the differences.

      However, performance across systems can vary based on the server time. Some systems and pairs did not perform on one server time, while profitable on another. This changes per pair which makes sense when you consider how liquidity works for different pairs.

      Anyways, a good discussion indeed.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

  • Kris

    Hi Chris,

    As a total newbie in FX, I’m reading a lot of usefull information on your website past weeks. Trading on the daily charts fits best with my personal lifestyle. But I live in Belgium (GMT+1) and can’t stay up untill NY Close, because that’s too late for me (11pm local time). Are your strategies working also for the London Close ? I think the London Close is different than the UK GMT 00:00 you mentioned above (correct me if I’m wrong) ? Does FXCM support London Close Charts, which are available at about 8pm local time ?

    Maybe my questions are a little stupid, but I would know for sure that trading could fit in my personal life before studying it in depth (with the PAC).

    Thank you


    • Hello Kris,

      Your questions are totally legitimate and good ones to ask.

      Most brokers work with the follow open/close times for the daily charts;
      1) NY 5pm EST Close
      2) 00.00 GMT Close
      3) GMT + 2 or European close

      There is a London ‘session’ close, but I know of no daily chart that closes on the London session.

      Our strategies work on any of the server times above so that is not an issue.

      But perhaps the European open can work for you?

      Hopefully I have answered your questions and given you some clarity and options.

      For any further questions – feel free to email me via the Contact Page

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

  • TedB

    Thanks for the insight. Until now, I was led to think 5pm candles were superior. But for a U.S. trader trading on the daily charts, 5pm candles would still be more convenient if the trade setups are based on candle closes.

    • Chris Capre

      Hello Ted,

      Many people are misled to believe 5pm candles are ‘superior’ which statistically they are not.

      RE: US Trader on Daily Candle Closes
      This is a good point and has some merit. Setups however do not have to be based on pure candle closes by any means. Levels, context, trades off dynamic support/resistance, breakouts, etc. are all viable strategies using the daily time frame.

      One is not limited to the daily close only, which is a narrow bandwidth and small lens to see price action trading.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre