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Weekly Price Action Setups & Key Levels | Feb 28 – Mar 4
Gold – Large Corrective Structure, Still Bullish Bias For Now (4hr chart)
One of the more impulsive bull runs this year has been in gold which is up over $150 since the start of the year. For most of this month the shiny metal has been in a large corrective structure between 1250 and 1200 at the top of the latest bull move.
This is a redistribution (or rebalancing) phase in the order flow. The width suggests there is a lot of it going on now with the bulls having a slight edge in bias with the higher lows.
For now I’m keeping my bullish bias while this structure remains. A break of 1250 targets 1300.
However a breakdown and daily close below the structural support means likely further unwinding of medium and short term bulls. This could lead to a move towards 1150 and 1125 before bids step back in.
GBPJPY – Profit Taking + Short Squeeze But Bearish Bias Remains (4hr chart)
After dropping over 500 pips last week, we can see the pair has bounced impulsively a few hundred pips since. Looking at the selling down towards the 155 handle, we can see some exhaustion price action which usually results in a strong bounce.
To me what we are seeing from the bounce is some strong profit taking + a short squeeze in the order flow. For now I’m keeping my MT bearish bias while below the key role reversal level around 160 on a daily closing basis.
Hence until we get a daily close north of 161, I’m looking to sell between here and the role reversal level for an expected move back down towards 155 and potentially the 150 big figure.
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