Weekly Price Action Setups & Key Levels | Aug 13-18
My current open positions: EURUSD, EURNZD, AUDCHF, CHFJPY, AX_UN, CUF_UN, CSE, FTS, XHB, SBER, TRP, XIV, FXo EURJPY, FXo EURPLN
USD/NOK – Corrective Structure Held, Trade 750+ Pips In Profit (4h chart)
Congratulations to those members who were able to take advantage of this selling opportunity which we talked about.
Considering the price action reaction off the level, a very likely scenario IMO is that we’ll see a continuation towards the bottom of this structure around 7.86.
If bears make it past this level, 7.73 would be the next support in line.
The best way for bears to attack this pair right now IMO, is to wait for potential weak pullbacks into the top of this structure, or alternatively wait for a breakout below 7.86 and a possible BOPB setup.
XIV (Inverse VIX ST) – Sells Off From Yearly High, +22% in Profit (1hr chart)
Tuesday last week $XIV hit the all time highs and then sold off sharply. I sold the $XIV shortly after touching the all-time high suspecting a sell-off was on the way at 96.13 (see below).
Since then it has sold off below the 75 handle, so am up +22% in profit on this trade now. If you had waited for a confirmation price action signal, you would have missed this trade completely.
To learn more about why we don’t trade confirmation price action signals, click here.
For now, I’ll be locking in profit and trailing my stop on Monday when the market opens, but any increase in volatility (e.g. geopolitical tensions), forced buying from the record short $VIX positioning, or crowded longs on the $XIV, and we’ll likely see more downside in this instrument.
Traders not already short can look for pullbacks near the 90 handle. The next key support levels come in around 62 and 50.60. Only a daily close above 90 would negate my ST bearish bias.
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