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Weekly Price Action & Technical Analysis Outlook | Sep 29-Oct 4
EURUSD – Trapped Within Small Range
After clearing above the key 1.3450 level post FOMC announcement two weeks ago, the pair has literally trotted in place, stuck mostly within a 100 pip range since, spending the bulk of that time hovering around 1.3500. With the Italian & Greek issues going on in the EZ, I prefer the bearish side more to start this week. So look to sell intraday price action rallies towards 1.3550, targeting 1.3475 and 1.3400.
GBPJPY – Bullish, But Losing Strength
After breaking and holding above 156.65, the pair broke the prior SH (swing high) at 158.50 touching 160 briefly. But it then formed a pullback, and last week a likely LH (lower high) suggesting at best a range, and more likely a potential reversal price action structure. If the pair breaks below the 156.65 key support level, then I suspect an unwinding of the bullish trend is next. In this scenario, the downside target would be around 154 before buyers step back in.
Dow Jones Index – Down 500 Points
Selling off for 6 of the last 7 days, the DJ index has shed 500 points and has been below the 20ema on the 4hr chart for the last 9 days. Although short term there seems to be the possibility of a potential bounce, with the Greek/Italian issues, risk will likely be off and thus indices under pressure. Bears can look to sell around 15315 and the 20ema for a potential bearish move back down to around 15K. If this 20ema is eclipsed, then bears can look to resell around 15450. Until there is a daily close above 15.5K, we prefer remaining bearish.
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