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Weekly Price Action & Technical Analysis Outlook | Aug 25-30
EURUSD – False Break, But Still Supported
After forming a false break last week popping above the key 1.3400 figure and then closing below, the pair found support at the daily 20ema, although this rejection is a bit meeker than the previous three. Bulls are going to have a tough time convincing new players to come in on a break considering how close price is sitting below the 20ema.
Bearish players can look for intra-day price action sell signals just below 1.3450, while bulls can considering small longs on corrective pullbacks towards 1.3320. Any sustained daily close below the 20ema and we’ll likely see some unwinding of longs, targeting a sell-off towards 1.3200.
GBPJPY – Pullback Forms Pin Bar
After finally last week clearing above 153.40, the pair climbed for 28 un-interrupted hours to 154.65 before pulling back to the aforementioned key level. You can see on the chart below how it formed a 4hr pin bar signal off the level and now back above the 20ema. Buyers are going to likely make another go at 154.65 where they should encounter sellers again.
If the pair is unable to take out the level above, then watch for a weakening of the price action to sell the pair targeting the pullback level. Any short term corrective pullbacks down into the level from here could attract buyers trying to get in on the pullback, so plays on both sides here.
Spot Gold – Uptrend Still in Place
As I’ve been talking about for over a month, the Gold bull run is firmly in place and took out a key resistance level at 1384 last week, briefly flirting with 1400 before pulling back. The precious metal still looks well underpinned, so I’ll look to add onto my current position by watching for a breakout pullback setup around 1384. Upside targets are 1400 and 1418 short term, with medium term targets at 1481 and 1533. Only a daily close below 1300 will negate my bullish bias.
Check out our latest Live Price Action Trades of the Week for Aug. 23rd from our students and myself.
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