Weekly Price Action Setups & Key Levels | Nov 9-14

USDCHF – False Break Above Yearly Highs (4hr chart)
After two pings on the yearly highs at 9688, the USDCHF price action formed a false break, punching above the resistance, only to ~1 day later break back below it. Unless bulls come back in on the quick and with some force, I’m expecting the new yearly highs to hold short term and bears to make an honest push back from here.

Hence watch for potential shorting opportunities, either at the former yearly highs, or just below 9750. If either of these hold and some earnest selling ensues, we’ll likely see a move back towards 9600 before any bulls consider getting back in.

Note the USDCHF has increasingly tougher resistance levels between 9750 and parity, so may need a pullback before making another run higher.


EURUSD – USD Showing Signs of Exhaustion (4hr chart)
The general pattern for the Euro vs. the USD has been to find a support, pullback, break the support and make new lows without really violating the prior swing highs.

Now the pair is starting to show something different from the last month, which is break back above the prior swing highs and support turned resistance. This combined with the fact most USD pairs are showing signs of price action exhaustion, hints at a possible consolidation or reversal for the USD near term.

If the Euro holds above the 1.2439 role reversal level, then it should attack 1.2520 and 1.2615. If it breaks back below 1.2439, then we should see a more complex correction with 1.2370 and 1.2620 being the wide ends of the range.


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