Weekly Price Action Setups and Key Levels | May 11-16
EURUSD – Heavy Selling From Large Engulfing Bar + False Break
Last week during the ECB rate announcement, the Euro spiked, then fell heavily on Draghi’s comments, forming a large engulfing bar + false break. The pair continued that selling into the weekend, erasing over 21 days of gains/consolidation in two days of selling.
Short term momentum is clearly in the bears hands. I’ll watch for corrective weakness at the 1.3675 support where the tailed bar formed in early April to possibly get long. If the Euro rams through this level, then support doesn’t come till 1.3500 and 1.3475.
AUDUSD – 2nd Inside Bar From Long Tailed Pin Bar
The Aussie is still riding higher from the long tailed pin bar signal we talked about daily market commentary on May 8th. The pair has now formed two inside bars after a large bullish close.
For now, the trend is still up, but the pair will need to make a new high for the bulls to maintain the short term momentum. The next support comes in around 9315, so look for corrective weakness here to rejoin the trend. A daily close below 9300 put 9200 into play, while a daily close above 9393 will put pressure on the yearly highs around 9450.
Nikkei 225 – Corrective Structure With Bullish Underpinning
Consolidating for most of last week, the Nikkei 225 was in a corrective pattern after a role reversal setup at the key 14245 level. This level has held twice, but its failed to make new lows, while showing bullish rejection (at worse prices) via the back to back pin bars. This suggest some bullish underpinning, which may be an attempt to reverse the medium term bearish price action.
If the index can ‘recover’ the 14250 level, then it should challenge the 14500 resistance, and thus enter a range for a short bit. If we see heavy sellers come in at 14250, then it should retest the 14075 support. A break here puts 13875 on deck.
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