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Weekly Price Action Outlook | Sept. 16th-21st
Gaining for 7 of the last 8 weeks and 7 for the last 8 days, the Euro has looked impressive as its been given the green light from both Bernanke and the German Court (for now). Being that the trend is so strong, I’m only really looking for longs, but the price action is feeling a bit parabolic and climactic at this point.
Usually climactic price action means consolidation or pullback before the next leg up, so I’ll wait for pullbacks to get into this trend. My preferred levels for getting long are 1.300 and 1.2933 (or a really deep pullback to 1.2820). Bears can look for possible shorts on weakness heading into the weekly highs at 1.3167.
After starting the week with an inside bar strategy last week, the pair broke higher with trend gaining 4 days in a row. As mentioned with the EURUSD, I think the cable is turning parabolic and likely hitting a climax soon, thus time for some consolidation or pullback soon.
What I like about this pair is the upcoming major resistance and yearly high at 1.6300 coming up. Thus, bears have a great level to short the pair coming up, so watch for price action patterns off this level. Bulls can meanwhile to 1.6081 and 1.6000 before considering longs so plays on both sides.
Also gaining 4 of its last 5 days last week, the Aussie ended a little weak forming a pin bar pattern off the 1.0600 swing highs. Looking at the nature of this pin bar, I’m suspecting there will still be a second push into the daily pin bar highs near 1.0600. I’ll look for pullbacks on the 4hr/1hr time frames for weakness looking to take an intraday short off this level. Meanwhile, bulls can look for a pullback towards 1.0533 or 1.0472 to rejoin the uptrend.
Forming three large with trend engulfing bars in the last few weeks, I’m expecting a pullback in the precious metal soon. Don’t get me wrong, i’m long physical and paper gold, but usually a pullback is coming after three ultra strong trend moves with only minor pullbacks. The shiny metal is approaching a key resistance at $1790 so bears have a possible area to sell. Bulls will have to look for pullbacks towards $1743, $1715 and $1696 to add longs so look for price action setups there.
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