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Weekly FX Price Action Outlook | Apr. 1st – 5th
The Euro still remains in a medium term downtrend, and has yet to close above the daily 20ema, along with the dynamic resistance above, but short term suggests some bullish underpinning which is fine with us. Until I get a daily close above the 20ema, I’ll look to sell on rallies and view this as an opportunity to short it on the cheap. Thus, watch for corrective rallies between 1.2933 and 1.2951 to rejoin the downtrend, targeting 1.2775 and 1.2675.
WTI Crude Oil
On an impressive bull run for the the last month gaining over $8, there was no March of Ides as the pair relentlessly attacked the upside. The commodity is approaching critical resistance above at $98.00 though, and the first test just shy of this level formed a two-way outside bar (technically an engulfing bar, but moreso due to the holiday trading last Friday).
The nature of this bar suggests the first presence of sellers in over 6+ days, so upside rallies may encounter resistance. I’d be open to selling at $98 with a tight stop above should the price action approach the level correctively. So watch for price action signals off the level to sell, targeting $96 and $95.25 offering a really good reward to risk play. Consequently, if this level above folds, then $99.50 should be up next.
Dow Jones Index
After staging two impressive bull legs in this long uptrend for the year, the index has shown a pattern of almost near perfect consecutive up bars, followed by choppy consolidation with a slow grind higher. We are in the second of these two, and I suspect buyers are not enthusiastic about adding longs on a break. So I’ll look for a small dip before getting long again around 14400 with stops below the 14345 level, targeting 14545 and a potential new all time high around 14700 to rejoin this trend.
Diverging immensely from Gold as of late, Silver is looking quite threatening to the bulls as the consolidation in March and price action is hardly inspiring for more upside. The flag-like consolidation has seen the upside continually capped at $29.25, with the 20ema forming a pseudo-price action squeeze (one of the elements prior to an eventual breakout).
Currently the precious metal sits at a key support and yearly low of $28.00. Should this level collapse, then we could see $27 and $26.50 come under attack shortly after. If bulls want to get in, this is the level, while bears can look for corrective rallies towards the 20ema around $28.50 to sell but the downside pressure is mounting.
Make sure to also check out my most recent article Forex Trading, Ted Williams & The Little Details Pt. 2
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