Weekly Forex Price Action Outlook June 3rd – June 8th

The Euro shed about 300pips last week but ended the week strong forming a bullish engulfing bar off the 1.2300 figure.  Although it has done this earlier during this one month sell-off and downtrend, we feel its possible this one has a little more chap in it being the record IMM shorts we have been talking about on this blog.  Intraday players can look for a possible short around 1.2500 which is swing point above or more conservative players can wait for a pullback to the dynamic resistance and swing point at 1.2627 looking for price action triggers to short there.  Until it clears these levels, nothing has changed our bearish bias on the EURO.

bullish engulfing trading strategy 2ndskiesforex june 3rd

After posting 30 consecutive daily closes below the 20ema and selling off aggressively last week, the USDJPY is entering a very precarious zone, a 200pip range where it stayed stuck being held in check by the BOJ who eventually had enough early this year intervening to directly weaken the pair.  For bears, being quite a mature trend, we suggest waiting for a pullback to the 79 figure before adding any shorts while bulls can wait for a move down to 76 where there will undoubtedly be bulls looking to enter long considering this was the level the BOJ intervened before and held in check for so long.

forex price action 2ndskiesforex june 3rd

Selling off for an impressive 5 weeks in a row (only happened 4x in 10 years), the Pound landed on a multi-year support level at 1.5300 which could be part of a larger weekly neckline from a head and shoulders pattern.  Considering the pair has only sold off 4x for 5 weeks in a row, 3x at 6 weeks consecutively, and 1x at 7 weeks, it is possible the move does not have much more downside before needing a little reprieve so we would not be surprised to see some corrective price action here.  However, should the pair break and close below 1.5240, then the next downside support does not come in till the big figure at 1.5000 and the next pivot point below at 1.4800 so a lot of potential downside here.  We prefer selling rallies at 1.5500 and 1.5630 looking for price action triggers here, but are open to a breakout pullback setup at the 1.5240 level.

price action forex trading 2ndskiesforex june 3rd

After consolidating for the last two weeks in a 200pip range, the pair broke the 9700 support figure by forming a pin bar and false break in the process.  Although we still prefer selling on rallies, there are two plays here.  Aggressive bulls can look for possible intraday price action setups off the 9600 figure while bears can wait for a pullback to the 9850 region and look for price action triggers here.

pin bar strategy 2ndskiesforex june 3rd

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  • Rona

    Excellent,Thank you

    I Can’t agree more with you , it’s the same Levels I’m watching and same triggers i’m waiting for

    • Hello Rona,

      Good minds think alike 🙂

      Kind Regards,

  • Andrew

    Dear Chris,

    how do you choose which time frame is important to draw support/resistance lines? Why do you choose some particular time frame – for example here we see daily and weekly chart, just recently you reviewed EUR/JPY on 4H. Are these choices based on strategies tuned to these time frames and you are looking for specific setups, or you are scanning several time frames for meaningful patterns that could suggest something for long term trends/reversals, etc? Any light on this would be helpful.

    Also I kinda see subjectivity on this analysis and it is hard for me to make “recurring laws and rules” that I could use for my own independent analysis later. What’s actually confuses is that we see completely different candle formations on different brokers, so that rises question is there such thing as “proper chart and datafeed” institutionals and pro’s use, so there are pin bars, engulfing bars and so on – formations you base your analysis? Could you expand on this and make video?

    • Hello Andrew,

      This is a weekly report so naturally since the analysis is for the week, longer time frames would make most since (i.e. daily and weekly).

      The posts during the week are more for the next day so obviously, shorter time frames.

      Trading price action is both art and science, requiring a bit of subjectivity. Markets are both chaos and order, same as life.

      But in terms of different candle formations on different brokers, we’ve already gone over this on the course, how each broker will splice the time frames differently.
      Even though its the same price action, how you slice it will determine what it looks like.

      If I take a roll of film with 24 frames, and shoot a short movie based on frames 1-10 instead of 5-15, they will both look different, even though its the same 24 frames.
      This is why brokers have different price action formations based on how they slice the price action, especially for the 4hr, daily and weekly.

      There is no ‘proper chart and datafeed’ that the pros have and you don’t. They are all looking at a feed their broker uses. Its not like there is something special out there you are isolated from and only they have access to.

      Hope this helps.

      Kind Regards,