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Weekly Forex Price Action Outlook June 17th – 22nd
*NOTE: Although the Greek election has resulted in a Pro-Europe/Austerity party victory (and consequently EURUSD bullish), we remain being overly bullish for three reasons;
1) Spain is still a major thorn and may need more money
2) Italy is starting to heat up on the radar of countries needing assistance
3) The Greek PASOK party said they will not join a coalition govt unless Syriza does, and they said they would not. This means the New Democracy party may not be able to form a goverment of 150+ seats which means…wait for it….another Greek election in August.
Short term, this should all be EUR bullish and USD bearish. But any worries about the issues above will only put risk back on the chopping block so our analysis will reflect the current risk+ sentiment
After the Greek elections and the world not ending, the EURUSD has shot higher on the election news and we expect short term momentum to be on the regional currencies side, especially now that the bulls have cleared a technical hurdle in the daily 20ema and the 1.2667 resistance. Bulls can look for pullbacks to 1.2600-2630 for buying opportunities while bears can look for sells at 1.2827 and 1.2979 as I think in this current environment, it’s important to be ready to play both the short term bullish and medium term bearish possibilities.
After forming an inside bar last week after the over-extension we commented on two weeks ago, last week the pair posted strong gains but what is interesting is the muted response to the positive news out of Greece. The pair is sitting right at the top of the weekly high from two weeks ago, but more importantly, faces a stiff test in the key role reversal level at 1.5784 which has been support and resistance in both 2011 and 2012. This is also parked right where the weekly 20ema is so we could see some interesting price action at these levels. Aggressive bears can take plays near this level while bulls will want to clear it before taking a long, or wait for a pullback into the 1.5600 area before considering a long.
After climbing for 3 days and clearing the pin bar rejections from earlier this week, the Aussie has started to gain some strong upside momentum. We expect the upside short term to be more favorable (barring any bad news out of Europe) but see solid upside resistance at 1.0230 coming ahead. Bears can look for shorts here while bulls can take pullbacks towards parity to add fresh longs targeting 1.0110 and just shy of 1.0230
Gaining for 5 weeks, the price action the last few weeks has been tentative, mostly because of the awaited result of the Greek election being critical to risk and thus Gold. Short term, we expect a dip and would be open to buys around $1600. Below this, we would also consider a buy around $1580 depending upon how the price action gets there, while bears can look for possible price action triggers around $1640. Overall, we are seeing continued signs of a building structure and expect Gold to shine along with upside price gains over the coming months and likely for the rest of the year.
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