Weekly Forex Price Action Outlook | Apr. 28 – Mar. 3

The chop continues as the Euro has not been able to string together more than 2 bull/bear days together without flipping sides. Although the bias is slightly down, the pair has been staging a series of false breaks and pin bars galore. Normally so many pin bars do not occur, unless we have incredible indecision going on.

With the strong closing on Friday, I’m expecting the pair to test the upper part of the range towards 1.3115 which we have commented on in last weeks commentary – and many of our traders profited on from selling here. This is the upside key level to watch for intra-day price action signals on the 1hr chart and below. Bulls have to maintain 1.2950 to keep any semblance of a bullish bias.

pin bars inverted pin bars price action eurusd 2ndskiesforex.com

Having failed twice to take out the 100 barrier, the USDJPY sold off aggressively on Friday. The pair managed to barely hold onto the dynamic support and daily 20ema but looks to be under pressure. Although the uptrend is still in play, the key level for bears to take out will be the 96.54 which was the March 12′ swing high and support on the last bounce. Bulls can look to get in around here, with stops below the April 16th lows, targeting the range highs. Bears on the other hand can look for a corrective pullback towards 99.75, or a breakout below the key support level below.

usdjpy price action trading dynamic support 2ndskiesforex.com

Crude Oil
Last week on my Thursday Market Commentary, I discussed the inside bar setup, and discussed how I was seeing more upside, but to watch for a pullback towards $91.95. The commodity formed a bearish engulfing bar suggesting possible pullback. But the price action selling ran into the $92 level and found buyers. If the selling was legitimate, where did all the sellers go and why did the selling evaporate? Inquiring minds want to know.

But I’m not convinced the sellers have control of the market and think the bulls are going to take another attempt to break the $93.84 swing high. Downside support comes in at $92, and if this breaks, then I’ll expect further selling towards $89.50. An upside break targets $94.50 and $95.75.

engulfing bar pattern price action trading crude oil 2ndskiesforex.com

After making up some of the massive losses it took on 14 days ago, the PM ran into the key role reversal level at $1484, going one dollar past, and then forming a 4hr pin bar setup. The pair sold off heavily from this, and then took a second stab at the level, forming another long tailed pin bar, coming just shy of the level, and then falling over $25 in a couple hours, so obviously sellers were willing to defend the level for now.

The shiny metal found support around $1448, so the lines are drawn short term. Bulls have to take out $1485 near term while bears have the $1448 level in sights. Physical demand has been through the roof, so this may underpin the paper prices, but the line of least resistance for the short term is still to the downside.
long tailed pin bar trading method price action gold 2ndskiesforex.com

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Buddhist, Trader and Philanthropist

I'm Chris Capre, Founder of 2ndSkiesForex. I help traders of all levels change the way they think, trade and perform. As a professional trader, I specialize in trading price action. As a teacher, my passion lies in showing you how to re-wire your brain for successful trading. Want to improve your edge right now? Visit my Price Action Course page.

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  • Graeme

    Hi Chris, Does the ‘still dominant’ bearish Railway Track/Two candle bear pin bar on the Day Chart of the EURUSD still have any influence on your analysis/bias?

    • Hello Graeme,

      I don’t know what you mean by railway track, so cannot really respond unless you clarify.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

      • Graeme

        Apologies Chris I thought the term ‘Railway Track’ was a common term. The bullish day on the EURUSD on the 16th April followed by the bearish day on the 17th April form the Railway Track. The second candle being the bearish one in this case labels it a bearish pattern. Using candlestick addition the two candles also create a pin bar. As the pattern dominates candles either side I was interested to know if they had anything to add to your analysis, (at the time you did your analysis).
        In my own analysis the highs of these two candles also reacted off a resistance level strengthening the bearish signal. As I type this I notice the bulls are having another go at the highs of the ‘Railway Track’ pattern and ‘my’ resistance zone.
        If there is a breakout by the bulls then the pattern failure is also a noteworthy signal 🙂

      • Hello Graeme,

        I really don’t look at things from a candlestick perspective, nor railway tracks. I look at it from a price action and order flow perspective, but I don’t do candlestick ‘addition’.
        So they did not have anything to do with my analysis.

        Trading patterns by themselves I think is a freshmen/sophomore way to trade price action. The patterns by themselves are meaningless without the proper context. Not all pin bars are created equal – many fail, but why should be the question? The answer lies in the surrounding price action and order flow. So I try to learn to read/trade the latter, not pure patterns by themselves.

        To sum it up, patterns are the reaction to the order flow, not the response. And if they ‘become’ the response – this is a secondary response, not the initial.

        Hopefully that clarifies it.

        Kind Regards,
        Chris Capre