Weekly Forex Price Action & Ichimoku Chart Outlook July 1st – 6th
Gaining for the last 3 out of 4 weeks, the EURUSD was bolstered by the EU summit as Germany and Frau Merkel caved for now on the ESM support mechanism. This lifted risk on, along with the Euro which formed a weekly pin bar and cleared an important hurdle of resistance at 1.2632 which was the Jan. 2012 lows. Near term resistance is close by about 70pips north of here and last weeks high at 1.2746. If this is cleared, expect short term bullish momentum to continue up to 1.2822 and 1.2913.
However, we expect there to still be plenty of bears in the market looking to sell any rallies, with these being key gravity points for them to enter. In reality, nothing has been solved as Spanish banks are still in trouble sitting on a pile of bad real estate mortgages, yields are still high for the Italian and Spanish bonds, and the prior bailout effect lasted roughly a day before the hangover settled in, so we are skeptical until we see continued strength. So watch for intraday price action triggers here to short if the movement starts to weaken into these levels.
After finding support at the parity level and the Kumo bottom, the Aussie outperformed in the risk on friday via a large engulfing bar. In the process, it also formed a Kumo Break to the upside, which it has not seen since early March this year. In doing so, it took out the key 1.0230 area resistance while the Chikou Span also cleared the Kijun. After 1.0315, the pair has some decent upside play until 1.0384 which the chikou may run into some stickiness around the Span A.
Beyond this, the next layer of resistance would be at 1.0442. Short term pullbacks into the Kumo will likely find support around the rising Tenkan showing momentum is starting to build for the Aussie. In terms of Ichimoku Time Theory, the pair has not formed a full period yet, which would happen around the end of this week so we may see weakness then and look for possible intraday shorts.
Forming a potential 1-2-3 reversal, the Loonie strengthened massively vs, the greenback on friday and is on the verge of completing the 1-2-3 pattern. The pair needs to take out the prior SL (swing lows) at 1.0156 which was the June low this year. Should it do this, we will watch for a breakout pullback setup, expecting intraday sellers to come in, along with technical models taking profits so some short term selling opportunities near by. From here, we expect selling to continue down towards 1.0050 which was the 3mos range high so watch for intraday buying opportunities if the market shows weakness heading into these levels.
After showing exhaustion towards the end of last week, Gold formed an intraday pin bar reversal setup before launching on a $55 run. You will notice this formed right before the EU summit. It is very common to see price action triggers form right before a key economic event. Many of our price action traders got into this so hopefully you spotted this setup as well. The shiny metal should be encountering resistance first at $1612 and then later just shy of $1640 where we will look for a possible fade as gold has yet to break these levels since early May this year.
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