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Weekly Forex Price Action Chart Outlook | May 26 – 31
USDJPY – Looking for a Pullback into Key Level
Selling off for back to back days (last time was in April), the USDJPY sold off heavily after the China PMI miss and Abe-nomics plan starting to unfold.
The pair has since retreated to the daily 20ema which has held price up since early May. Although there is a 4hr pin bar signal at the 20ema level, I am suspecting a further unwind before buyers come back in. So I’ll look for price action signals to get long at 100 or 96.75 which are key pullback levels where buyers stepped in to take prices higher.
NOTE: Trading will likely be subdued Monday as the US banks are closed for the Memorial Day Holiday.
AUDUSD – Key Support Under Attack
Zooming out to the weekly charts, since Soros started selling the Aussie, the pair has lost over 600+ pips and is challenging a multi-year support level in .9600. The 2012 lows was .9577, and if this breaks, then really there is no support till .9380, so quite a lot of potential here. I’m suspecting a breakdown is more likely this week, but if a bounce ensues, I’ll look for pullbacks towards .9800/20 to get short as I feel the multi-year support will not hold for much longer.
Crude Oil – Pin Bar off Range Support
For the second time in 11 days, Crude has formed a pin bar signal off the 92.10/20 range lows. the 4hr charts show the bounce off the level looks identical, but I’m not totally convinced its going to hold. The reason for this is the two days of selling last week over-whelmed three+ days of prior buying. Contrast it with the first pin bar back on May 15th, which followed four days of selling that was = to four days of buying.
With the US markets and main commodity exchanges closed on Monday, the European traders could pressure this further. Bulls who want to buy, I’d recommend looking for a corrective pullback into $93.00 with stops below the low of the pin bar.
Nikkei 225 – Loses 2000 points to End the Week
After forming a pin bar signal on Wednesday last week, the major index got hammered dropping 9% on Thursday, then followed it up with more selling on Friday. The Nikkei bounced off the key level I discussed on Thursday’s market commentary at 14000, but the pressure is still on. If 14000 holds, then we will likely see another attack on 16000 as rarely do trends end like this without a second attack. However, if 14000 collapses, then support does not come till 13615, and 12700, so a lot of potential downside.
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