How I Traded the NFP Price Action Today | Nov. 8th

Like all things, what seems hard, elusive, or confusing, becomes easier with training.

In the beginning, I always suggest not trading the NFP number (but watching it), especially if you haven’t built up confidence in yourself, experience, chart time, and are well trained.

But once you are, the NFP number, and often volatile price action which accompanies it, is just weather…of a different kind. Sometimes its really challenging, and sometimes its more workable.  And with training – there are opportunities.

Here is how I traded the EURUSD during NFP below using the 5m chart:
live trade nfp eurusd price action 2ndskiesforex nov 8th

What you are seeing is me entering within 7 minutes after the NFP number came out, using only the 5m chart and price action.
I exited when I noticed it was likely to bounce and showing signs within the price action, wherein it bounced right after I exited. Total profit was +75 pips with < a 15 pip stop, for over 5.5R, all within about an hour.

Keep in mind, if you were busy looking for a ‘price action signal’, then you would have missed it, along with most of the moves for today.

Food for thought.

Make sure to check out our highly controversial article Trading Like A Sniper – What It Really Means

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Buddhist, Trader and Philanthropist

I'm Chris Capre, Founder of 2ndSkiesForex. I help traders of all levels change the way they think, trade and perform. As a professional trader, I specialize in trading price action. As a teacher, my passion lies in showing you how to re-wire your brain for successful trading. Want to improve your edge right now? Visit my Price Action Course page.

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  • ray

    what then is the reason for entry if price action trigger were not the reason

  • Jack

    Hi Chris

    Fantastic trade and great skill in both entry and exit! Can I ask if you used the 20EMA and the lows to the right of the chart to gauge where to place your stop?

    Kind Regards

    Jack

  • Jack

    Sorry I meant lows to the left :/

    lol

  • San

    Eager to see your actual trade.

    I am wondering what made you decide to exit at the point your marked in that chart. There was a possible bounce earlier.

  • sam

    whenever you trade the NFP because of high volatility do you use always the 5 min chart?
    What pairs do you typically trade on the nfp and did you only trade the Eur/usd today.

    Thanks,
    Sam

  • NOVA.FX

    Solid

    -BC30

  • IvanFX

    I will try to venture into your mind Chris:

    Impulsive sell off in line with dominant bearish momentum on h1,h4,d, price pulls back to retest round number 34 with stop 15 up (protected by 45degree angle 20ema + static support-turned-resistance resistance). The idea offers little risk and potentially high reward. Once price sells sharply again, in your mind, the idea of letting it mature for a runner is reinforced. Price then bounces only to be rejected strongly as offers absorb bids easily(as can be seen in the next red candle paring almost all gains from that strong bounce). By this time, Chris is probably even more reassured trade can be a killer. Once 1.3350 is broken, Chris has probably moved trade to breakeven if not before. The initial break of 1.3350 sees bids producing a mild bounce failing to take previous swings highs before selling off again, this time 5 red candle are printed with few bids in btw as the LL and LH suggest. Chris then is astute to close position when pattern breaks by first blue candle engulging last red, indicating bids are potentially re-emerging…

    • “You have been well trained my young apprentice. The global markets will be no match for you.”

    • Ok so a few things that were missed on all your answers.

      Lets all just keep in mind a few things;
      1) Euro got hammered vs. US the last week or so. Not many people excited about buying it
      2) Draghi just cut rate to .25BP, so less people interested in it
      3) The price action ‘context’ was already bearish leading into the NFP number, with it just consolidating around the lows (generally a sign of weakness)
      4) After the NFP print, the initial move was down, then it came back to point of initial sell off. If sellers truly were going to hold, it would likely be there.

      All of that screamed to me (nobody wants to be long EUR at 1.34, and the PA is all but pointing down, so I’ll be short

      Why didn’t I exit around 1.3350 and those mini bounces?

      Well, the last rejection by the bulls was around 1.33. To me, 1.3350 was no-mans land, meaning bulls are waiting for prices around 1.33 to buy, while shorts are not going to cover till just above 1.33. So hold for now.

      The 5m Engulfing bar was not my reason to exit. It was getting so close to 1.33 where there were likely bids (if any for the day) sitting there. Now a rejection here would mean something to me, because this is where bulls would likely be parked – not 3350. So time to cover my shorts.

      Turns out to have been the right move, but keep in mind, I didn’t know this ahead of time. My original target was 3309, and when it got within 8 pips of it, then bounced, I felt it was a) close enough as I had already locked in a lot, and b) time to cover as my intuition was telling me of a bounce.

      I trusted those two things, so I exited.

      So hats off to Ivan who gleaned most of what I was thinking. It wasn’t as mechanical, but you got the key points, and most of them.

      As to the other questions;
      @Sam – I don’t always use the 5m chart. Just depends what looks cleanest that day.
      @San – Now you know why I exited there instead of the bounces earlier.
      @Jack – I didn’t use the 20ema so much on this one, more the pure context of the prior price action.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre

  • IvanFX

    “It is too late for the markets to stop me now. Everything is going as planned.”

  • Dave

    Congratulation ,That it is very impressive , hopefully I can tune into the markets like that one day.

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