Today’s Forex Signal June 23rd

GBPJPY 4hr Chart

After a strong impulsive move to the downside lasting 20 days and 1900 pips, the pair has retraced back to the 50% retracement of the move at 135.98.  The pair has hit this level 6x since June 3rd, every time rejecting off this level and never closing above the big figure at 136.  Its mostly been trotting in place between the 38.2% fib (133.78) with only 8hrs below and the aforesaid fib level above.  Between the two, we feel the upper line is the more important one in the sand.  This leaves us with two clear methods;

1) Should the pair have a 4hr or daily close above, then this will likely precipitate a move up to 138.15 which is the next fib level up.

2) However, considering how many times this pair has rejected off of it, the pair could be setting up for a major breakdown back to the zero level of the move where the retracement started at 127 or 900pips below the 50% fib.

Based upon the price action, this is starting to look more like a breakdown so keep you eye out for an impulsive move down or a rejection candle off the 136 handle.  Profit should be taken around 131 bringing the stop to BE (breakeven).

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