Forex Trade Signals and Setups Mar. 6th
EURJPY – Forms Pinbar after Strong Selling on JPY Pairs
With the Greek Tragedy still playing out actually worse then the ones written by the founding fathers of democracy a few thousand years ago, the JPY cross pairs got hammered today as four Greek pension funds are holding out on taking the bond swap deal. Can’t blame them as the four funds have about €2Billion in collective funds and they aren’t exactly voluntarily switching into the bond swap deal. BTW, who thought of the idea for self-employed people to have a state run pension fund???
Regardless of the insanity called the Greek Bond Deal and the LTRO heist, all the JPY pairs sold off as JPY gained ground with people having less of an appetite for risk with Jobs NFP data coming this Friday and continual worries about a slowdown in China.
With the EURJPY taking a double hit with EURUSD also getting hammered, the pair sold off almost 200pips on the day with a small rejection off the daily 2oema. If we examine this rejection on the 4hr chart below, we can actually see a pinbar which if the 20ema is going to hold, gives us a good long opportunity targeting a pullback to the 106.90 level offering a very nice 3.5:1 reward-risk play.
On the other hand for bears, a sell on stop seems like a solid play just below the pinbar lows, targeting a possible pullback to the 103.30 region while neutralizing risk on the big figure of 105.00 below so plays on both sides.
DOW – Key Break Below 20ema
For the first time since Dec. of 2011, the DOW has broken below the daily 20ema and in strong fashion with the largest one day sell off since Nov. last year. With the vapor thin volumes being the underlying characteristic in the last uptrend, this tells us the market had very little confidence in this bull run,or a lack of self-esteem in this rise and I think this is now being expressed in the strong sell-off today.
Any pullbacks into the 20ema should be considered good rally to sell as we do not expect the 13000 mark to be reached again and are anticipating further downsides, especially if China continues to cool, oil remains well over $100 a barrel or the situation in Iran gets any hotter. We are expecting price action to pull back to 12500 and possibly 12350 in the near term should the selling continue.
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