Forex Trade Signals and Setups Aug. 15th
EURUSD – Looking Bullish Short Term – One more Hurdle to Clear
After being choppier than the camera shots in Cloverfield, the EURUSD has started to wake up – and climb up for that matter. Seemed the pair did not like being locked up Arkham Asylum style over the last 2.5 weeks banging around like a mosh pit in between 1.4450 and 1.4050.
Over the last 28hrs, the mainstay climbed 24 of those 28hrs gaining 200pips in the process only to stop at the range highs around 1.4450. This has probably enthused the bulls as of late and it looks set for more gains – perhaps after a small retracement back to the 1.4325 region.
What it has to do is clear the 1.4550 resistance which were the July 3rd and 26th peaks that sent the pair backtracking. It should be noted how well the EURUSD has held up considering the regional instability. This could be due to China’s decision to support the regional currency, or from the fact they are wanting to diversify out of USD’s. Either way, the pair has looked well propped up and unable to mount some serious losses over the month of July.
Watch for rejections at the 1.4550 levels as any strength or fight to push the pair back will show whether the pair is ready to break out but short-medium term, it looks well supported above 1.4300.
AUDUSD – Coming up to a Flat Top
Although a little more tentative than the EURUSD lately, its been a little more consistent (directionally speaking). The bounce has been decently supported and now the pair is running up to a critical resistance level; both the 50% fib (of the 1.1063 – .9927 move) at 1.0496 (also a big figure), & the Kumo Flat Top also at the aforementioned level.
Now flat tops are not always important, but in this case, they hold more significance because of how the pair has been below the Kumo for the last 13 days. The longer it is below, the more significance a Kumo Break has. Combine that with the fibs and a 4hr close above could suggest the next leg is favored to be up.
Expect this level to be tested for at least a candle or two as support before the pair makes another advance 130pips north at the 61.8% of the entire move so plenty of upside for any bulls on parade.
USDCHF – Between Two Critical Levels
After hitting the all time lows at .7070 last week, the USDCHF has been quite impressive, bouncing back over 900pips in a matter of 4 days. In that process it took out the daily 20ema which it has not been above since early July and it did so soundly.
However, the freight train got stopped at the big figure .8000 soundly and fell over 135pips in a matter of a few hours. What is so critical about this level?
Besides being a big figure, as you can see from the chart below it represents the 50% fib of the last May high – Aug low (.8944 – .7070) which is parked perfectly at the figure. Below it resides both the 38.2% fib at daily 20ema at .7782. If USDCHF is really making a run, then this level could be a good pullback level having both the fib and 20ema as support for traders to get long again.
Should this happen and the 4hr price action shows a likely bounce off the lower fib, then set 1st target just shy of .8000 and a second target at .8190 just shy of the 61.8% fib.
However, any 4hr close below the 20ema and 38.2% fib could represent some further selling and a move back down to the low 7600 so plays and options on either side.
Oil – Steady and Climbing, Coming up to Important Resistance
While not acting overly excited, the pair has been gaining 2 out of every 3 4hr candles since the bounce which suggests the buying has been consistent and steady – just not super impulsive. And rightfully so as the commodity got hammered and is still over $33 off its highs so being wounded and not totally confident (especially in these markets) makes sense.
Regardless, it continues to chuckle along and has been using the 20ema as support on pullbacks since the 11th. Now its approaching a major resistance level which is housing both the 50% fib of the last major downmove (100.45 – 76.03) at 89.93 and the all important 90figure which as you can see from the chart below was a major support level that when broken caused a price cascade and the commodity quickly lost $5 over the next 16hrs so impressive to say the least as it was holding some critical orders there.
Watch for price action to steadily climb should it stabilize above the 38.2% fib and you can use pullbacks to the 20ema as options to get long with tight stops below should the price action respond well to this level.
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