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Forex Trade Setups Aug. 30th
NZDUSD – Broke Critical Fib and Big Figure
After finding some footing above the .8000 level, the Kiwi took some time breaking the 20ema rejecting off of it 2x before finally clearing that hurdle.
Since then, it has climbed for 3 days straight taking out the 50% and 61.8% fibs of the .8850 – .7964 downmove. The 61.8% fib was placed nicely just 9pips above the big figure at .8500 and price has looked strong into the close.
We now suspect the NZDUSD will likely make higher ground and possibly a run back to the recent swing highs at .8850. Watch for price action setups on the 4hr chart off the .8500 for clues as to whether it will hold or not. Should it look stable and give a rejection off this level, then look to a price action setup for a possible return back to the swing highs. Keep an eye on prices’ relationship to the 20ema on the 4hr as well to see if this will hold.
Spot Gold vs. USD (XAUUSD)
After getting hammered in 2 days off the $1900 level and increased margin hikes which sent the shiny metal diving, Gold has formed a nice pinbar rejection off the daily 20ema. Since then, it has climbed 2 out of the last 3 days gaining about $80 an oz off the key moving average.
Its hard to want to buy gold now and shy of the all-time highs but we feel there are plays for both sides of the market.
For the bears, the clear play is to wait for the $1900 level to be touched and put tight stops above the $1911 highs while targeting $1836 and the 20ema.
For the bulls, we suggest waiting for a pullback to the 20ema and use this as a spring board, perhaps even creating another pinbar trigger off of it and then giving us our entry to go long targeting also the $1836 level and then just shy of $1900. Until the $1700 lows or $1900 highs are cleared, we feel to not trade any prices in between.
Also make sure to check out our article on the Gold Moving Average Spread article which you can find on Chris Capre’s Forex Strategies Blog
$DJIA – 3x a Charm?
After the early August panic sell-off, the $DJIA has found some support just sub 10700 and has since produced two higher lows. But what is interesting to note is it keeps getting rejected at the prior year lows at 11525 which was the Mar. swing low for this year and just recently broken.
The day after it was broken, the market tested it only to sell off another 800pts. After bouncing off the yearly lows, price did a 5 day march up to this level to what??? Reject off of it again and sell back to a 10750 print. Since then it has come back up again to this level to do what??? Reject off it again although this time seems a little timid and a lot more uncertainty seems to be present for the bears at this moment.
Bears can still make a rejection short off this level with tight stops above and target 11000 and 10750 offering some great R:R levels on this trade. Bulls should wait for a breakout-retest setup considering how well price has rejected off this before so be patient on this one.
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