Forex Price Action and Ichimoku Setups June 20th

Verified Profitable Trader

EURUSD – Kumo Window coming up
Looking at the 4hr chart below, the EU pair is approaching a kumo window along with the 50% fib of the last downmove which began a handful of pips short of the 1.47 handle and eneded sub 1.41.  Since breaking the 1.41 handle, the pair immediately without delay, posted an outside reversal (or outside candle) taking out the prior candles losses, then the resistance (prior floor above it), and then shot up 170pips in one 4hr candle.  Since then, any candle which has taken out the prior selling candles losses has never regained the full set of losses.  Translation:  the buyers are overpowering the sellers and continually making higher ground.  Now the pair is stuck between the 50% and 38.2% fibs of this last downmove which could hamper gains.  But should you be bullish, the Kumo Window coming up suggests if the pair wants to gain ground, it will need to break the 50% fib before the london open on the 22nd.  If it can do this, it will likely use the flat kumo top to serve as a launching pad in conjunction with the 50% fib attempting to make higher ground.  Should the pair struggle to get past this and never really close above this fib and outside the cloud – then look for further losses.

Make sure to check out the free video on ‘Trading Ichimoku Kumo Breaks‘ for more information about this setup.

AUDNZD – Strong Bullish Tenkan/Kijun Cross Coming Up?
After breaking below the Kumo on the 4hr time frame back in May 12th, the pair has not resurfaced above it…since last week where it pierced through the Kumo Window.  Since then, it has petered out a bit with no candle really taking on major losses until the current one still in play.  However, there are good prospects for a strong bullish tenkan/kijun cross coming up.  First, check out the flat top kumo below which then leads into an increasing or rising kumo.  This could be suggesting support is increasing as time goes on and this makes sense considering the bottom at 1.2800 held a second attempt, followed by a strong buying surge off the level which took out the previous resistance which was the May 31st floor making higher highs and higher lows (so far).  The pair also has short term fib support so watch for the upcoming Kumo to hold price action.  If it does, then look for a move back up to 1.3150 which is the 20ema on the daily chart and major technical model to be broken for longer term players.  Should this fail to hold the upside pressure, then we anticipate a move back to 1.3350.  A break back below the 1.2936 level suggests a return back to 1.2800 so there are plays on both sides for the short term.

NASDAQ – Time to buy at key support?
After shedding 380pts and spending all of June below the daily 20ema, the NASDAQ has approached a key support and shown a double rejection off the key level.  This is key as the index has yet to close below 2186.55 level with any ventures below sounding a rejection from the buyers.  Its understandable if one doesn’t get excited about going long as the index has sold off every 2 out of 3 trading days for this entire month so duely noted.  However, there is a low risk buying opportunity here for a move back up to the 2250 level which is where the 20ema is coming in.  Also keep in mind we had a ‘dueling swords’ pattern on the two candles preceding the last upclose which suggests a minimal return to 2222 for a short term move.  If you are looking for the next short, then wait for a rejection off the 20ema with tight stops above so bulls and bears have plays on the table.

Spot Silver – Is it starting another run?
Nobody doubts the last silver run was impressive starting in the summer of 2010 at 17.60 and running to just shy of 50 per oz.  Since the Hunt Bros. failed to corner the silver market and the margin increase on silver caused the precious metal shed over 30% of its value, the shiny metal has been acting a bit odd – especially around the 50% fib of the aforementioned upmove.  After holding at this fib 3x on the daily charts, the pair started a legitimate but timid bounce to take out the 20ema – only to….break back below it.  The sell-offs have been stronger than the buy-ups but on a daily basis, its been gaining more.  If price action has its way, both sides can state their case as its making higher lows, but selling off stronger than buying.  I think this is a situation where the offers are being absorbed and the precious metal is headed for another impressive run to the upside, possibly challenging the previous highs and maybe making new all-time highs by late fall this year.  If you want to sell, then wait till a 39.30 print and target the 50% fib and hope for a daily break below to target 30 per oz.

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