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Forex Ichimoku Trade Setups – Nov. 22nd
EURUSD – Another Run at the Swing Lows
After having an impressive sell-off from 1.4284 – 1.3489, the pair made a little bounce late last week but has since run into some selling to start this week from the London open over 200pips in one day. This sell-off started at the 20ema and 38.2% fib combo and suggests the pair is likely to make another run to the swing lows at 1.3489 about 100pips from current print. The pair rests inside the Kumo and is followed up with a falling Tenkan suggesting momentum is favoring more losses. Beyond the most recent swing lows, should the pair break the Kumo, we expect a possible run to 1.33 and then on to 1.3123 for a completion of the fib projection.
USDJPY – Knocking on the Door
For the last 14 days, the UJ has been climbing for 9 of them in an impressive run to take out the Kumo which would be something it has not done in over 6mos. The pair is either;
a) to start another run to the downside by breaking back below the Kumo and forming another TKx to the downside
b) break the Kumo and use it as support to make an attack on 85 and possibly 90.
We favor the latter scenario as the greenback has been gaining against a host of currencies but is showing technical and structural changes across the board. Should the pair break the Kumo, look for it to settle back to 83 and should it stabilize here, watch for another run to the upside and our aforementioned targets.
GBPUSD – 7 for 12
Although it may not seem like a lot, the GU has sold off 7 of the last 12 days and shed 400pips. The pair continues to take out any gains but the downside has also failed to gain serious momentum as the Tenkan and Kijun are flat. The upcoming Kumo is not too intimidating and its flat bottom posting around the swing lows should act as a magnate to any major downside moves. What is critical about the swing lows back in Oct. at 1.5675 is they are now the 61.8% fib of the last major up-move. Should this level and the Kumo go, then we see a min. move to 1.55 and more likely to 1.5375 so the GU could be in for some serious losses soon.
USDCHF – Trying but Stalling
After posting an 8 consecutive days of gains, the USDCHF has stalled at the 99-9980 range sitting tight up there and inside the daily Kumo. The Tenkan and Kijun are starting to climb but the pair will need to make a move in the near future if it wants to break up-ward because the Kumo in the near future gets more anemic and will not likely support a major move in either direction. The key will be the parity and Kumo top which is the next upside barrier for the pair. Should we see a daily close above this, the we expect gains into the mid 1.01’s and possibly back up to the 1.03 level. However price action remains timid and indecisive so we suggest waiting for the upper barrier to break or a push back below the kumo before taking a position.
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