Forex Ichimoku Report – Sept. 13th

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EURUSD – What a mess but something interesting
After a massive sell off in mid-August, the pair has literally traveled nowhere.  Up two weeks, down two weeks and held by the Tenkan and 20ema which are flat.  But there is something interesting to note.

The pair had a solid run up from June – August and then started a violent sell off.  However, it stopped dead in its tracks right on the 50% fibonacci of the aforementioned move.  It has since then been propped up just a tad higher which makes it a little more interesting.  If the fib projection is correct, the pair should end up at 1.4060 but based on the Kumo structure, it will need to make its run between now and November for after that, the Kumo gets really thick and will be a challenge to break minus the flat top parked perfectly at 1.3500.    For now though, its really a mess and should the pair fail to make new highs, we could see an inside week but the pair has been bought up from the open and held so far.  Short term buys can be had at the 50% fib at 1.2611 with tight stops below and a target of the 20ema.

USDJPY – Still Falling
Since June of this year, the pair has only had 3 weekly upcloses.  Although the market is long JPY at the moment, we really have no business longing the pair as that would be plain silly.  The trend has not been aggressive and likely because of possible fears of BOJ intervention but that does not seem likely until the 80.00 level as we have coasted through 85 with ease.  The pair finds small rejections each week but the bottom line is it ends up lower so don’t hang on till the close.  With the Tenkan/20ema falling nicely but the Kijun flat, pullbacks are suggested and an ideal place seems to be the daily 20ema which has held up for months now.

GBPUSD – Perched on Top
After 5 weeks of declines, the pair has rejected off the 20ema 3x and and started the week perched atop the line which has held so far.  The sell-off has not been super aggressive and rather timid which could have simply been summer/low liquidity trading.  A weekly close below opens up a move to the Kijun at 1.5118 while tight buys off the 20ema suggest a possible move back to 1.5500.  The Kumo is a mess and suggests complication and unlikely any trend will be forming soon.

USDCHF – Parity almost a done deal
Like the USDJPY – the Swissie has posted only 3 weekly up-closes since June this year out of the last 13.  Thus, we still only want to be selling but we have to address the parity level which seems like a done deal at this point (and likely is).  The Tenkan and Kijun have a rather odd shape in the short term but that is simply because of the up-close from the week prior.  The pair opened this week and has sold off from the get-go and we feel its likely touch parity this week or next.  The main question is will it hit 9900 (prior low in 09′) and the answer is yes but selling on breaks hasn’t exactly bought you the next mansion.  Pullbacks to the 20ema on the daily have worked well and should continue to hold so unless this pair sprouts some wings in the near future, look for a move to 9900 this month.

AUDUSD – Is now the time?
Since Oct. of 09′ the Aussie has been trying to take out the 9400 barrier with a weekly close above.  3 major attempts later and its failed but the pair has not only held up at the 38.2% fib from the massive up-move last year at 8100 but just a few weeks ago formed a Tenkan-Kijun cross upward inside the cloud (a medium strength buy signal).  This has held up as the kumo and 20ema supported it and the pair has been climbing for 3 weeks straight suggesting it wants to make another go at it.  We feel this is its best attempt yet so any weekly close above 9400 sets up a test at 9500.  But beware as there are several lines of resistance above at 9650 and 9850 before it gets some breathing room.  Any pullbacks to 9000 should be considered great buying opportunities (as long as it doesn’t fall like a brick getting there) for a move back up to 9400 and whatever highs it carves out in the current leg up.

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