Forex Ichimoku Report July 19th
EURUSD – 1st Since 2009
The EURUSD has done something it has not done since Dec. 2009 – have its 1st weekly close above the 20ema. This is significant as it has done it with style posting 5 weekly gains out of the last 6 so we are expecting this to continue.
The falling Kijun is up next for the pair and a daily close above this suggests 1.3125 and 1.3250 are on deck. Now is a good time for the pair to get aggressive as the Kumo presents a weakness heading into mid November which could make way for an upside break of the weekly Kumo. For now, wait for a pullback as the pair has offered some every week for the last 4 in a row and then look to go long targeting 1.3000, 1.3125 and 1.3250. Only a weekly close below 1.2500 changes our short-medium term bullish view.
GBPUSD – 1st Time Rejection
After posting an impressive weekly gain last week, the pair has hit the flat Kumo bottom and rejected off of it. This should not be discouraging for bulls, however taking longs at this point would be ill-advised as we have a hurdle to overcome in the flat Kumo bottom.
For now pullbacks to the 20ema could be a good location to add a long and the Tenkan at 1.4865 offers another opportunity for more conservative traders. Upside targets would be the Kumo top and beyond this – 1.5606 which is the 61.8% fib of the 2010 high to low move.
USDCHF – Working Hard to Hold Its Ground
Posting another 6th consecutive weekly decline, the pair is losing less than before, however its still losing. It is however putting up a good fight as we are seeing more wicks to the downside which are getting larger with each pass. The pair may have just had enough for now as it shed 1200+pips in a month and a half which is quite a lot. The pair may hold at the 1.0400 lows for now which puts some pressure on 1.0700 in the near future and possibly 1.0850 in the coming weeks.
For now, only small longs can be attempted around 1.04/1.0450 with stops just below. Bears will have to wait till 1.07 or 1.0850 before getting back in.
AUDUSD – Hemmed in
For 4 weeks running, the pair has tried to close above the weekly kumo and 20ema but failed every time. Dips are getting more shallow suggesting the 20ema will go soon but it has the kumo top at .8900 so its got a little work to do. However a weekly close above the Kumo should give it some support for another attack on 9000 and 9300. For now, bulls will have to wait for a break to add longs or .8469 (tenkan line) before getting back in. All lines are flat suggesting no trend, no momentum and nothing to write home to mama about.
EURCAD – Taken Out
After rejecting for two weeks in a row, the pair has finally taken out the 20ema in strong fashion closing 200+pips above it. The flat Kijun is up next and should the pair pass it, we are expecting a move up to 1.4000 and 1.4225 which is the 50% retracement of the 1.6000 – 1.2475 downmove.
Pullbacks to the 20ema offer some decent short term longs targeting 1.3775 and 1.4225 so some good upside in the works. Bears will have to wait till 1.4225 or the Kumo before considering selling but the pair has gained 4 out of the last 5 weeks so we have to be short term bullish on this pair.
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