EURJPY Sell Signal At Resistance Zone Update | Sept 5th

EURJPY – Drops Off After Pushing Up To Resistance Zone
Yesterday we discussed how we were looking for sell signals at the resistance zone between 132.15 and 132.75. Yesterday at 6am EST the pair pushed up to 132.135 (1.5 pips shy of our level) and then sold off another 120+ since then suggesting sellers were waiting short the pair up there.

The false break and follow up rejection off the 1hr 20ema suggests short term the pair should be under some pressure till 130.70. If this folds, then 130.45 and 129.84 should be up next.

NOTE: NFP is tomorrow so be mindful taking new positions ahead of the event, while protecting positions you wish to hold through it.

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  • ray

    super move.. PA the best. thus why every trader should include PA as part of their work…

  • Sebastian

    Hello Chris
    Why would you sell, the level that has been hit 3 times already. Normally with each hit of that level more sell orders are consumed and level is getting weaker. Wouldn’t be better to wait for breakout and retest from the upside to take long position?

    • Hello Again Sebastian,

      Hmm, I think there is a misunderstanding here. First off, having more hits off the level does not necessarily = weaker levels or sellers there getting weaker. If the rejections are getting stronger, then this would mean the sellers are getting stronger so the level is thus getting stronger. So its not a fixed relationship like you say.

      Secondly, as to why one would sell here, its quite simple. If I were to take this trade say 100 or 1000x, I am quite confident that with the risk and reward potential available, I could easily make money on this over time. The difference between a highly successful trader and a mediocre one, is the mediocre one only looks at this and says, ‘oh, its not a high probability setup, so I shouldn’t trade it’. But this misses the entire point of trading.

      Just because its not a ‘high’ probability setup, doesn’t mean you do not take it. If it offers you an edge over say 100 or 1000x, then you trade it because regardless of whether you win or lose this single trade is meaningless. What matters is over time, does it make you money.

      You have to be trading and thinking in probabilities, not just only taking high probability setups.

      Just like in poker, you cannot be simply waiting for your pocket aces, or big slick hands to play. Many hands which are not ‘high’ probability hands if played over time make money. It’s the exact same for trading.

      Many of my students did and made money off of it. And they will continue to over time and long run by spotting setups with an edge that makes money.

      So I think there is a misunderstanding and confusion here as to why one should short at this level as suggested.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris Capre