Ichimoku Report June 21st
EURUSD – Can It Go For Three?
The EURUSD has done something it has been unable to do for over 60 days – have two weeks of upcloses in a row. Not only are these two upcloses strung together – but they are strong in force. Are they likely a huge amount of buying coming in or profit taking? We think the latter as the pair simply had no more sellers left to enter the markets. Although the closes have been strong on a weekly basis, on an intraday level, the price action was overlapping a lot suggesting it was not pure strength but short covering for a round of buying was met with strong selling. So where to from here?
We think the falling Tenkan will stop the advance upon first touch and would be shocked if the pair could make it past the weekly 20ema. Generally Kumo formations like this are met with another round of selling so we will look to sell the pair higher up – possibly at the Tenkan which sits at 1.2645. Sell rallies for a medium term move down back to 1.2000 and possibly lower.
GBPUSD – 20ema up next?
Doing a 1-up on the Euro, the pair has climbed now for three straight weeks and has shown there is a likely short term base around 1.4250-4300. The pair has yet to close above the Tenkan which is flat suggesting it has a decent chance of doing so. However, the 20ema has not been breached since Jan. this year so 1st time up it should provide a push back. The Kumo should also make things harder for the pair so traders should pick their upper levels (should you want to sell) more carefully than the EURUSD.
USDCHF – Fallen Quite a Lot. How Much More?
Last weeks fall in the USDCHF was the largest one week fall and move this entire year from an open to close basis. In fact, the pair virtually produced no wick to the top or bottom side suggesting the move was uni-directional from an order flow perspective from the get-go. The pair has found some support at the 20ema and the Kijun sits below in line with the flat Kumo top which could offer a great level to buy. Traders can consider buys here but caution would be advised. Better to wait for the flat top/kijun level below. Should that hold, if the pair clears the 20ema, then a move back to 1.12 and possibly 1.15 could be in order.
AUDUSD – Almost Clear
After two of its best back-t0-back weekly closes, the pair has run into the 20ema and the Kumo top. Generally, ichimoku models would not buy until its clear of the Kumo and we would agree with this method. If you are interested in such a move, after the weekly close posts, targets should be .9000 and a possible move back up to 93/9400 with stops below the Tenkan.
If you like the downside, then now is the time as there really are no more major lines or upper levels to slow the pair down other than what is there right now which is the 20ema and Kumo top. A move back down has its challenges with the Kijun/Tenkan just below at .8700 (0nly 70 or so pips) but past that, things open up for a possible move to .8500 and .8100. The answer of where its next move is should come this week or the next.
NZDUSD – Better than Big Brother
As the title suggests, the Kiwi has performed better than its big brother opening outside of the Kumo on the gap and has cleared the 20ema, Tenkan and Kijun all with last weeks price action. The Kumo is solid for the next few months so should it really go for a move higher, the pair is well supported on a time basis. Upside targets are near by though coming in at .73300 and .7400. However, beyond these levels, there is only the .7634 which is the 09′ high. After that, the pair has a solid chance of tagging 80 cents.
Keep in mind it does appear to be stuck inside a channel as well and based on this pattern, the suggestion is the next move is up so watch for how price reacts to the channel top coming in the mid 72′s.
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