Forex Trade Signals and Setups Jan. 9th

Volumes and volatility levels are still down, both on a daily basis and also on an intraday hourly basis so we have to factor this into our trading.  What does this mean?  It translates into breakouts failing more often then not.  It translates into trending moves not having enough steam and when they do carry, the pullbacks are more often than not.  It also translates into smaller time frames failing to produce significant moves thus looking at larger time frames.  It also means its a good time to fade ranges as the levels will likely hold more often then not so keep this in mind.

AUDUSD – Stuck Between a Rock and an EMA

After building a bullish price action structure over the last three months with a series of higher lows while the key resistance level is producing smaller fades, the pair is getting hemmed in between a key level and the daily 20ema.  The last two pullbacks to the 20ema have held and supported price action nicely while the rejections off the 2-mos resistance level at 1.0400 have gotten more shallow communicating the bulls are winning the tug of war…for now.

chris capre price action trading jan 9th

For the bulls to complete this series of higher lows, they need a key price action breakout-retest setup to confirm the break above the 1.0400 level is for real.  This will convince the market the tentative upside plays have more steam as they have taken out a key high and should look for higher altitudes so watch for price action clues at this level while monitoring closes below the 20ema for a more bearish scenario to play out.

XAGUSD (Spot Silver) – Can It Break Key Resistance Up Ahead?

After bouncing off the critical 6mos lows at $26, the precious metal bounced nicely and ran into the fibonacci level we mentioned at $29.82 just shy of the big figure at $30.  Price action has retreated but in a very tentative fashion and still has yet to take out the lows of the Jan. 3rd candle so until it does or gains more steam to the downside, bulls should still have confidence the key highs above will be broken with continued effort.

price action trading chris capre jan 9th

Watch for price action clues on the 4hr time frame should price hold above this level.  If it does and provides a price action trigger, then look for longs to target $30.95 and $32 with the bulls having a small fight on their hands.

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Also make sure to check out our newest article called  Awareness, Negative Habits and Concentration in Trading.

For those of you looking to trade price action, make sure to visit our Advanced Price Action Course where we teach rule-based systems for trading Price Action.

 

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Discussion

3 Comments

  • PePA - January 10, 2012 7:39 am

    Hi Chris,

    Nice article once again.

    I’m thinking about the differences between the two setups. Am I correct assuming that in XAGUSD there isn’t much point waiting for breakout-retest setup? On the other hand, if AUDUSD breaks the resistance at 1.0400, it might come back to take support at that level.

    I think that this makes sense by looking at the price action, but I’m not sure why it is so. Maybe that’s because in AUDUSD the resistance is a major one. In XAGUSD, resistance is a retracement level of the bigger move and it’s not that solid resistance.

    Do you think that my reasoning has some basis in price action or is it just a vain rationalization?

  • Kerry - January 21, 2012 3:58 pm

    Really educational materials here. Looking forward to getting ur course.

    • Chris Capre - January 24, 2012 9:39 am

      Hello Kerry,

      Glad you like it. Looking forward to working with you.

      Kind Regards,
      Chris