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EURUSD - Are the Bulls Getting More Confident?
After 4 weeks trying to close below the weekly Kumo and 4 attempts to close below the 1.3500 big figure, are the bulls finally getting more confident they can hold the downside here?  This is an intriguing question as the pair did make a slightly higher high than the previous week.  So far, the pair is still caught between two walls; bottom = 1.3450 / high = 1.3800.  This is the major range which has to break before new players will really come into the market.  Until then, the pair is directionless and is accentuated by the flat Tenkan and Kijun suggesting the pair has no momentum and no trend in place at the moment.  The longer the pair remains in the Kumo, the more cloudy the picture remains.  The cleanest scenario is to dump out the bottom and start another leg of the downtrend which would be very tidy and consistent with the medium term structure.  Wait and see for now and intraday you can play the ranges.

GBPUSD - Going South to Start but a Test Remains Below
The pair has started this week under pressure as it opened and briefly went up only to sell off most of the latter portion of today.  Heading into Tokyo on Monday the pair is towards the lows so far so the pressure to the downside is on.  However we have this massive wick below which goes all the way to 1.4781 and starts at 1.5145 which is a whopping 360pips (give or take a few).  This large rejection could be the first sign of a short term bottom for the pound and you have to consider some players will try and use this bottom as an excuse to buy.  It should be noted this is a slightly aggressive play considering the pair has fallen 6 out of the last 7 weeks.  The Kumo above is claiming to be quite a ceiling for it being thick and consistent so upside gains will have to be well earned.

AUDUSD - Medium Upside Favored but Strange Pattern in Play
Gaining the last 3 out of 4 weeks, you have to think the pair is attempting to make another run towards the 09′ highs around .9400.  Short term support is below at the Tenkan/20ema meeting at .8930 but the upside is a little strange and speculative because we have an expanding triangle which is one of the lesser patterns to trade so short term upside may be limited by the potential trend-line at .9269.  Overall, the pattern is weak so very light plays are suggested at best.

USDCAD - At the Do or Die Line
The pair is almost there at the 09/10 bottom around the 1.0200 level and one has to wonder if its going to hold up a third time.  In one sense there will be traders totally tempted to make plays here as it has held up before so the risk is low and the upside is decent.  However, the pair has fallen 3 out of the last 4 weeks and the downside moves have been strong to solid.  The Tenkan and Kijun offer no information other than being flat suggesting the downside may hold as there is no momentum to support a major move at the moment.  However the 20ema is still sliding down reflecting the overall drift in the pair so upside plays require caution as they are fighting something that has yet to be tempered.

GBPJPY - Going for a Second Attempt at the Yearly Bottom * Alternate Chart
*We were getting tired of the NZDUSD so thought we’d take a look at another chart.

This pair is behaving somewhat like the GBPUSD as it opened the week and then started straight down for the bottom currently at the lows of this week.  The long wick below plays as both a magnet and possible area for aggressive buys to be parked but the overall pressure to the downside has yet to be relieved so you can take a higher risk play at last weeks low which was 132.38 and target the 135.00 figure with stops below.  Alternate scenario would be to place sell orders at this weeks high (right where last weeks high was with a stop and reverse play just above that level.  There are some interesting scenarios on both sides but so far the overall pressure is still down until it can break last weeks highs.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku and Price Action Courses for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Stubborn as a Mule
To date, the pair has yet to close below the Kumo and has now posted 3 weeks of rejection from the 1.3500 level.  There are obviously buyers willing to challenge the seriousness of this downmove and are staking claim here at the 1.3500 level.  There has been several intraday probes below this level but all have been rejected and not one has had a daily close below.  The pair is stuck in an intraday range between 1.3420-ish and 1.3630 so until this breaks, the range dominates.  Mildly aggressive plays can be made on the outer edges of this range with tight stops.  Overall, with the Kumo flat for the next few weeks, we could easily see the pair stuck in this area till early April as it should act as a magnet for price.  However, we feel the longer term prospects are to the downside.  Should the pair stay solid and hold 1.3500 until April, then the buyers should have more confidence and push the pair up to the Senkou Span B which climbs for the rest of the summer but will likely have a short leash for bulls making a ceiling just below 1.3800.

GBPUSD - Further Downside Expected
As we wrote last week, ‘Should the pair close below last weeks low then a move towards 1.5000 seems in order.’

As the pair closed below the previous weeks low with a final print on Friday at 1.5246, the pair sold off from the beginning and never looked back as we wrote, tagging the 1.5000 barrier yesterday and dropping way below that hitting a daily low of 1.4782 which is quite a move.  We expect nothing but more sales for the pair and short term 1.5000 could act as resistance.  The weekly low last week at 1.5151 and the weekly open (this week) at 1.5246 will likely act as upside barriers.  We do not expect the pair to have a weekly close above 1.5500 for the rest of the summer with the Kumo being quite thick and flat from April - end of August.  With the pair selling off 7 out of the last 8 weeks, why would we buy?

AUDUSD - Quietly building
The aussie is under the radar building up some steam for the bulls as its had now 2 of the last 3 weeks closing up with the two being relatively close to the highs suggesting the pressure is steady.  Last week was a small down week but it found strong support at the Kijun which has now joined the Tenkan and 20ema at .8930 so this should act as a short term support for the pair.  So far we are at the weekly highs and the larger structure seems to be in play which is an awkward expanding Triangle (of sorts).  Overall we only like the dips to the 20ema or supposed Channel/Triangle top for now as possible plays.  Other than that, this thing is a mess and we really do not like these structures.

USDCAD - Part of the Commodity Mess
After two weeks of closing down, the pair found an uptick and challenged the Kijun which has been flat for several weeks.  However the air was too thin up there and the pair got rejected closing 150pips lower from the Kijun.  Since then, the pair has tested the 20ema and failed there now producing lows below the last two weeks.  We feel the only plays available are the 1.0200 region which could house some moderate buys there or selling at the Kijun/20ema combo.  Overall though the charts are a mess as only the Kijun is falling sharply with the 20ema dropping at a tortuga pace and the Tenkan is flat.

NZDUSD - Flat like the World Once Was
Stuck within a 200-300 pip range for the last 4 weeks, the pair is suffering from a malaise of having no idea where to go.  It obviously is respecting the 20ema which it has rejected off of now 2x and if the overall price action for the next few days is flat, there is no reason why we should not expect a third.  Ironically the Kijun is climbing while the 20ema and Tenkan are flat.  We do not expect the pair to eclipse the Kijun in the near future and the Kumo is not too far below so overall, this is a slow play to either side.  Do not expect much.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku and Price Action Courses for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD – 3 Attempts and 3 failures

Tis now the third time the pair has tried to close below the Kumo bottom and third time it has failed producing a relative doji in last weeks price action. The pair tried to push up then down and went virtually nowhere. The market definitely digested the rate hike from the Fed but it seems like the pair is either consolidating its losses before another run or its really attempting to see if the bulls have the real strength to take the mantle.

For now, its under review with the overall downward structure unchanged but no new added momentum so we cannot get excited about being overly bearish. A rejection upon the 10ema is a decent short term aggressive play but until we get a weekly close below the 1.3500 figure, we are cautiously bearish and waiting for some new talent to arrive.

GBPUSD – Adding to the downside pressure
After holding in place and forming a relative inside bar, the pair sold off again closing just below the major intraday floor at 1.5550 which should act as a short term rejection area. If the last pattern holds, this week could trot in place but if the pair does not make it up above 1.6000 by late March, the falling Senkou Span B on the Kumo should exert downside pressure on the pair forcing lower ground. Should the pair close below last weeks low then a move towards 1.5000 seems in order. For now, momentum is slightly tilted down but nothing extravagant.

AUDUSD – Complex but wide channel with flat Momentum
There is not much about this picture which is pretty or consistent on either side. You have an expanding triangle which is a horrible pattern to trade, you have all three lines flat showing no momentum at all and lower lows which declined faster than the lower highs did so there is little consistency in the overall structure making only the wide levels worth playing. With that being said, there is the highs between 9400-9300 for shorts and the trendline bottom at .8700 for a potential buy. Declines are likely not to be heavy as the Kumo is thick, strong and building over time suggesting the breeze of the kumo should carry the pair up.

USDCAD – Failed above the Kijun, looking for a bottom
After closing above the Kijun for the first time in a long time, the pair failed to gain any new buyers and ultimately slammed back down below it, the 20ema and the Tenkan in less than two weeks. It the pair wanted to be tidy, it would head for 1.0200 where other buyers would likely be excited to scoop up the pair. We feel if you want to be a bull, then wait for 1.0200 or uber-strong signs of a bottom forming before going long. For bears, the 20ema is the only thing offering a play for now currently clocking in at 1.0595 with stops just above the Kijun.

NZDUSD – Showing the weakest strength against the USD
Gaining for two weeks but failing at the 20ema, the pair looks like it will use all three lines above as a test of strength to qualify the bulls desire to take control or concede it again. The pair is in a channel which is relatively stable so we have wide lines and shorter term lines for plays on both sides as the channel top and bottom offer reversal plays while the 20ema, Tenkan and Kijun offer tests for the upside and possible rejection plays. Should the pair remain in the channel till the Kumo, then it will either use it as a base for another run up or likely slam through it and head for the flat bottom.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku and Price Action Courses for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - holding on
The pair has had two downside rejections to break the weekly Kumo but yet upside price action has yet to become strong enough to make a case for a real reversal being attempted.  This could either be some profit taking in the short term before new positions build to the downside, or the bulls not really having enough strength to overwhelm the bears.

Either case, the pair remains in the Kumo so the picture will be a bit cloudy until we exit on either side.  The Tenkan suggests momentum is still down but slowed a bit and the Kijun has gone flat in the near term.  If they have their way, price should bounce around the Kumo but the pressure to the downside should still remain.  Watch for a weekly close below the Kumo and 1.3500 to strengthen shorts resolve.  A break above the 10ema will give bulls some short term hope.

GBPUSD - mixed salad but downside favored
Posting a mild gain last week, the pair has yet to produce any meaningful upside price action.  Last weeks gains were smaller than the last 11x the pair had a weekly gain so it suggests this is not due to bulls taking over by any means.  Its lackluster effort will need to be doubled before the bulls can gain some steam.  All the lines are relatively flat so their is no current momentum but the remaining downside inertia which will still have an effect on price.  The Kumo is week for the next month or so until April so it will not provide much of a challenge for either camp.  Its a mixed salad but more of the goodies appear to be towards downside plays.  Need more evidence this week to see where the bulls and bears hearts are.

AUDUSD - Impressive climb and now breaking above the 20ema
Forming an almost outside reversal bar, this is one of the pairs that may challenge USD strength.  Not surprising its a commodity pair and the AUD ta’ boot.

The pair held at the lows from two weeks ago and closed knocking on the 20ema’s door.  Since then it has virtually climbed today and is about to surpass the Tenkan line.  However, all three lines are flat so they are not offering too much of a fight for either camp and are remaining relatively neutral like Switzerland.  Should the pair close above all three lines, it could make a challenge for the 9300/9400 highs from 09′ and 10′.  However a close below the Kijun would challenge the previous lows just below .8600.  Need to see how the DOW does this week to see if the current strength will hold up.

USDCAD - Just not ready for higher levels
Close to making a case for some higher ground, the pair faltered last week and slammed below forming an evening star pattern of sorts but more importantly, last weeks losses took out the last two weeks of gains.  If the pair should continue to sell-off, we feel the next buy level will be just above 1.0200 which has held the last two attempts.  There is not much reason to be bullish in the short term but the bears appear to have some sort of near term control so its the only valid play out there - just not our favorite at current levels.  We’d rather be shorting closer to the 20ema so will wait for price to reach 1.0200 before we consider any real move.

NZDUSD - pulling up the rear
The underperformer for the commodity pairs, the kiwi reversed some of its losses for its first weekly gain in 4 weeks but it has yet to touch or breach the 20ema which is currently the lowest of the three lines which are currently all flat.  The pair appears to be caught up in a downward sloping channel which could be part of a bull flag in the larger scheme of things.  The pair has upside resistance in the three lines and the channel top so selling at the top of the channel seems the current viable option.  Not our favorite scenario so we will play the channel but this week has opened bullish as if it wants to challenge the 20ema.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Only the Bottom of the Kumo
As stated last week;

The pair fell as expected to 1.3850 just 75pips above the weekly Kumo.  Although we feel the pair needs to correct a little bit, we ultimately feel any rallies are just opportunities to sell the pair higher.

Just as we wrote, the pair rallied to the big figure of 1.4000 and then dropped 350pips closed in the mid 1.36’s.  Posting its 4th weekly decline in a row, the pair only has the bottom of the Kumo to take out before a large drop should manifest.  Should we have a weekly close below the kumo, we are expecting a dive to the 1.2900 and longer term forecast could send the pair to 1.2400 by year end.  Outlook for the bulls on the EURUSD do not look good as the last bastion of Ichimoku support is the bottom of the kumo and beyond that the atmosphere is thin.

GBPUSD - Look out below…
Posting its largest weekly decline since sept. last year, the pair did two things which added to the bearish taste for the pair; 1) closed below the kumo for the first time in 6mos and 2) crashed below the major support at 1.5700 which was the last double bottom support for this pair in the last 10mos.  Ichimoku analysis suggests unless a rally happens in the next month or so, this pair could easily be headed for 1.4900 with 2nd targets at 1.4500 and possibly a full reversal of the 09′gains back to 1.3500.  Look out below as there is not much to help this pair.

AUDUSD - Cuidado as we are below the Kijun
For the first time since March of last year, we had our 1st weekly close below the Kijun.  We expect this along with the 20ema and Tenkan now to act as strong resistance so the line of least resistance has clearly formed to the downside and the bearish prospects have become attractive - especially with the RBA not raising rates last month and further concerns about inflation and a weakening labor market.  The kumo does not come in till about 8000 so there is plenty of room for this pair to drop.  Any rallies to the Kijun are likely good selling opportunities.

USDCAD - Working hard for its money
One of the few USD pairs having to work hard for its money, this pair had a doji week but nevertheless closed above the kijun and 20ema.  This week it used it as support and should it have a weekly close above 1.0800, we feel the pair could likely be headed towards 1.1250 which is where the Senkou Span A comes in (kumo bottom).  At that point it will have to work hard for its gains but for now, outlook is good for USDCAD bulls and as long as the dips are corrective in nature, the 20ema should hold as support for a good long base to form.

NZDUSD - Likely first to the weekly Kumo
With its 5th weekly down close and now 2nd below the Kijun, the pair is likely headed for further losses towards 6500 as it spiked up to the Kijun only to get smacked back down 300pips lower.  The 20ema has now gotten below the Tenkan and Kijun so this should reject any upside plays.  The line of least resistance is clearly to the downside and we would not feel good about buying this pair anytime soon.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Kumo Below, but nothing special

As stated last week;
The problem for the EURUSD is more about a lack of support combined with clear lines of resistance.  This along with the Kumo now way below at 1.3770 suggests the first major attempts to support this pair will not come for another 275pips below or more.

The pair fell as expected to 1.3850 just 75pips above the weekly Kumo.  Although we feel the pair needs to correct a little bit, we ultimately feel any rallies are just opportunities to sell the pair higher.

For now, the lines of least resistance are still to the downside and with the pair posting its 2nd largest weekly decline in the last 9mos, we feel this selling pressure should continue till the end of Feb.

GBPUSD - About to be…
Who really wants to be buying the pound now?  We really cannot find any reason to buy it both technically or fundamentally.  From an Ichimoku perspective, the pair is threatening to spill out to the downside of the Kumo and we feel with the likely USD strength to come, the pair will eventually submit.  The Tenkan is diving like a shark smelling blood below and the 20ema is also resistance above so the line of least resistance is still to the downside.  Should the pair remain below the Kumo till early April, the prospects for a serious dive below 1.5300 becomes more likely as time goes on with the Kumo getting thick and strong to the downside with a flat bottom below at 1.5300.

Until then, the twisted thin Kumo does not offer much for support or resistance so we feel the lines will have the most influence over the pair.

AUDUSD - Only one more to go
Selling off about 250pips last week, closing towards the lows and breaking below the 20ema, the pair now only has one more major downside support-line and price to go before a strong fall can begin.  Opening off the Kijun (red line) the pair has found some strength and is checking the 20ema for legitimacy.  Should it break this, the Tenkan will come under threat so the pair is in between two opposing forces.  Unless the pair gets really strong this week, we feel another challenge of the Kijun will be in order this week or next.  Should the pair break this and the .8733 support base (previous bottom), then we feel the pair is headed south for a while, likely towards the Kumo top before finding any support which will likely not come in till .8250-ish.

USDCAD - Doing an About-Face
After having its 2nd largest weekly gain in the last 7mos, the pair closed above the 20ema and Kijun.  However, USD selling this week has brought the pair below both lines and we feel dips will likely find support at the Tenkan line.  This could where the bulls re-enter to make a second skirmish towards the 20ema and Kijun.  Should we have a 2nd weekly close above these lines, we feel technical buyers will come in to launch the pair up towards the Senkou Span A which should not come until after 1.1000.  We are liking dips on this pair as buying opportunities.

NZDUSD - Next to the EURO…
This pair looks like its in 2nd to last place against the USD with only the EURUSD looking worse.  Why?  The pair has sold off for 3 straight weeks but just closed below the Kijun and 20ema for the first time in over 6mos.  Now all three lines will act as resistance so the line of least resistance is clearly to the downside.  Ultimately, unless the .6969 support base holds (should the pair fall further), we feel the pair is headed for a much lower value, possibly to .6500 before finding any major buyers.  There have been some bullish statements by Bollard (Head of RBNZ) which may give the pair a lift but we feel it has more work finding higher ground than lower pasteurs.  The only thing which would change our bearish view is a weekly close above the Tenkan.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Clear Resistance / Weak Support
Posting its most aggressive 1 week decline in over a month, the pair has found mild support in the end of the week to bounce a tad.  The bounce is not strong and is consistent with a combination of profit taking and corrective behavior.  The pressure is still on and we expect any gains to be tempered by the 20ema which is now pointing decently south.  The problem for the EURUSD is more about a lack of support combined with clear lines of resistance.  This along with the Kumo now way below at 1.3770 suggests the first major attempts to support this pair will not come for another 275pips below or more.  Treat rallies as selling opportunities until we reach the kumo top down below.  Only then would decent buys be considered but the pair may be in for some mild correction in the first half of this week.

GBPUSD - Messy like a 6yr-old’s room after too much chocolate intake
We almost considered not writing about the GU this week as the pair continues to play inside the Kumo which is getting thinner like the character in the Stephen King novel day by day.  The lines are all flat and there is no momentum on either side of the market.  Last weeks gains were moreso due to EURGBP buying instead of straight GBPUSD selling.  The pair does appear to be caught in a bear flag pattern and all three of the lines (20ema, Tenkan, Kijun) are all above so the picture suggests the next likely break to the downside.  We suggest light positions until more clarity arrives as some cautious shorts could be attempted at the weekly Tenkan or Kijun.

AUDUSD - Confirming the Failure
After failing to make it to the previous highs, the pair has followed it up with some strong selling to find a small base of support at the Tenkan.  We feel this will be a lesser test and the more important one the 20ema which has held the last bounce.  If it holds again, since it is climbing it will further build up the wedge pattern and suggest a possible continuation.  A failure at the 20ema allows the pair to test the Kijun line which it has not done since April of last year.  Its too late to sell and the only real technical buys offer themselves at the 20ema but caution is advised.  Any large sell-offs will likely get picked up by the Kumo around the 8000 range and allow the pair to make another run at the 09′ highs.

USDCAD - Making a Claim
The USDCAD is really trying to do something it has not done in a long time - break and close above the 20ema.  The pair has had its closest close to the blue line since July of 09′ and its posturing up like its tired of the suppression.  The good thing about breaking the 20ema here is the Kijun is so close it will not really need additional effort to take out both of them so its likely to be a 2for1 situation.  Should this scenario unfold, the pair might get aggressively bullish as it would ignite technical buying.  So far, in the last 6mos, the pair has only touched the 20ema once which led to a serious rejection of 800+pips in less than 3weeks.  We feel this week or next is probably one of the best chances for bulls to get some fresh air to the upside.  Aggressive sells could be placed on a 20ema touch but its not our cup of tea.  Any major rejections offer another chance to buy around the low 1.02’s for another 400pip climb with little risk to the downside.

NZDUSD - at a Critical Line in the Sand
Closing right on top of the 20ema and now the Kijun, we feel this is likely the best place for bulls to come back in as both lines have held since late March last year and this is the most contact they’ve had with these lines in a long time.  Last weeks selling was strong and none of the lines offer any major testimony as to the bullish prospects.  The Kumo is sitting below another 750pips from the current level so we feel a weekly close below the Kijun will likely send this pair to .6560 and .6300 with 7000 holding up the last defenses for the bulls in the medium term.  If someone wanted to buy, this is the only place left for a while as any prints below here suggest a fall is probably on its way till at least the end of Feb.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD - Support Falling
As we wrote last week in our Ichimoku Report:
the pair will either maintain its corrective mode or start a strong sell-off towards the kumo top which has already fallen to 1.3760/80 level and will remain there till the end of Feb.

and

the line of least resistance will remain to the downside until 1.3760/80 level or until after feb. 26th when the Kumo starts to climb and build a good base of support for months to come.

This is essentially exactly what has happened to the pair with it attempting a comeback only to get slammed by the weekly Kijun.  The formation of this weekly candle and the strong rejection suggest the line of least resistance is clearly to the downside and any upside moves will have to contend with the Kijun and 20ema.

However, the Kumo paints the other side of the picture as its falling further and cannot offer any relief aid to the pair at least until the end of Feb. where it starts to pick up again.  It should be noted the Kumo does not come in as potential support until 1.3800 so this should bode well for the USD in the next month or so.  A break beyond 1.4185 suggest 1.4000 and 1.3800 will likely come under attack.

GBPUSD - Caught in a No-Fly Zone
An absolute mess of a pair trolling around the price levels like it has had one too many pints at the pub, the pair is caught in a completely inconsistent range and pattern which has formed a triangle within a triangle.  These patterns are absolute drubbish from a position perspective and we suggest only taking intraday positions as any position held over a day or so is likely to reverse.

The pair is caught in the bermuda triangle Kumo which is tailing off, getting smaller, and turning into a cone of sorts which then flips in mid-March.  Overall, this type of Kumo formation suggests extreme caution and not to take heavy positions as the complex Kumo pattern combined with the flat lines all suggest the pair is not going anywhere soon.  The only reason why its been climbing a tad as of late is the EURGBP sales which have been benefiting the GBP in the last two weeks.  Support or Resistance is neither here nor there and only the wide range top of 1.6850 and the far away bottom at 1.5700 have any major attraction to institutionals.

AUDUSD - Just Shy of the Double Top
Coming close but not taking home the cigar, the pair came about 100pips shy from the 09′ highs just piercing the 9300 barrier only to end the week in a sell-0ff.  The pair last bounced off the 20ema which launched the pair 600 pips and now that the pair has failed at the top, should it post another weekly decline, we expect a 2nd test of the 20ema which we feel will be the most important one.  The Tenkan is currently falling suggesting momentum is waning for this current upmove and since longs cannot add positions until a 09′ high break or another touch on the 20ema, we feel the pair will likely drift sideways or fall heavily to the 20ema but we do not expect massive buying to come in at this level so the short term outlook is at best neutral but more likely to the downside since bulls likely have lost a little confidence with the 2nd failed attempt to make a new high and are likely trimming some positions.

Overall, the larger uptrend structure is still in tact and the 20ema and Kijun offer nice levels to consider buying this pair if you are not already long.  If you want to go short, it would be best to wait for a dip to the 20ema where positions will reset a bit, then sell between 9300-9400 for another move back down.  Overall, shorts have a short term slight edge in this tug of war.

USDCAD - The Truth Coming Soon
Its first attempt to break the 09′ lows at 1.0200 failed with the pair just coming within reach of it only to bounce.  It then formed a higher low last week about 45pips from the 09′ low and has since bounced a tad.  Last weeks candle has wicks on both sides of the market and the CAD Interest Rate Decision with the revisions to the GDP should be the main trigger which either causes a nice bounce in the pair or sends the pair reeling past the 09′ lows.  Its kind of do-or-die for the bulls to mount any offense here and with the 20ema and Kijun falling, any rallies should get stymied.  Bears have two options while bulls have one with potential risky buys off the 1.0200 level an option for the horns to have their play while the bears can wait for a weekly close below 1.0200 or another attempt towards the 20ema selling just shy of the line and targeting the 1.0200 level.  Either way, the truth should be coming soon.

NZDUSD - 20EMA test Likely
After two straight impulsive bullish weeks for the pair to end 09 and start 2010, the pair has stuttered a bit well shy of the 09′ highs.  It should be noted the sell-off was mild at best and barely sparked heavy interest.  With the momentum and Tenkan declining, along with the recent successful test of the 20ema, we feel a 2nd one is in order as the pair is probably suffering from the solid USD gains against the other pairs.  The picture on the Kiwi is too similar to the Aussie as no real buyers will come in until the 20ema while sellers want a higher price.  Because the pair was that much farther away from the 09′ highs, we feel this is why last weeks price action was super mild as it could not garner any interest from both sides of the aisle.  Mild buys at the 20ema are the only real play for the moment and until we see how the pair reacts to it, we will not have much of a direction on display so tread lightly.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

EURUSD
Attempting a little bit of a comeback after the three week sell-off, the pair is moving in a rather non-committal corrective structure.  With a few tests above (20ema, Kijun, Tenkan lines) and one test below (Kumo Top) which is falling, if the pair cannot break through the rejections lines/levels above, the pair will either maintain its corrective mode or start a strong sell-off towards the kumo top which has already fallen to 1.3760/80 level and will remain there till the end of Feb.

What is interesting to note about this level and scenario is the 50% fib. retracement of the 1.2500-1.5100 move is also at this kumo/price level.  Unless the structure gets more impulsive to the upside and closes above these lines happen in the next week or two, the line of least resistance will remain to the downside until 1.3760/80 level or until after feb. 26th when the Kumo starts to climb and build a good base of support for months to come.

GBPUSD
A picture getting messier by the week, there is nothing attractive about this cloud chart on every level.  The trend line (Kijun) is flat, the momentum line (Tenkan) and the Kumo (blue space on chart) twists, turns and gets thinner for the next two months suggesting the pair will most likely remain range-bound for the next few months so building positions on either side of the market would not be suggested.

Based upon the current structures, small position buys could be placed around 1.5700 and short term aggressive cells can be posted at the Tenkan/Kijun lines which are parked at 1.6375.

AUDUSD
Finding nice support off of the 20ema and easily clearing the Tenkan line with an impulsive climb, the pair could be resuming its longer term uptrend but has the 09′ highs up at .9405 waiting for it and likely some sell orders parked there.  Although the Tenkan is relatively flat, the 20ema and Kijun are climbing so dips to the 20ema are good buy levels or any weekly closes above the 09’s highs as long as the impulsive price structure remains intact.

Any major dips are well supported by the thickly rising kumo so we prefer buying until kumo penetration has occurred.

USDCAD
Coming within 50pips of the 09’s lows, the pair has found a short term support and has bounced about 100pips.  However, other than the high risk buys off the lows, the only smart move would be to wait for approaches to the 20ema which is continually falling and yet to be breached since April of 09′

Ultimately, the thick kumo is falling along with the diving Kijun line all suggest bears are really the only solid plays out there.

NZDUSD
Following suit of its big brother the AUDUSD, the Kiwi acted as the canary in the coal mine selling off against the USD and could do so again but only to the downside.  Because it has moved impulsively but lesser than the Aussie, if there is weakness in the commodity pairs, it will likely be spotted in the NZDUSD.  This is also supported by the fact it has further to go to reach its 09’s highs so it could pull on the AUDUSD rising while it fights to break through the ceiling.

Ultimately, we feel the thick rising kumo structure will build and hold as a base on 80% of all major dips to support another run to the upside and continuing the longer term uptrend structure which is in place.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and has an Advanced Ichimoku Course for further training.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com

Bienvenido de 2010

Hard to believe we are not just in a new year, but a new decade.

EURUSD
Completing its first 3 week decline since Jan. of 09′, the pair found brief support at the price base just a hair above the weekly kumo flat top. The structure is definitely more bearish for the pair and the line of least resistance is to the downside starting on Monday. The kumo top starts to decline from the opening bell of the year so support is falling and the kumo base does not come back until 1.3805 which happens to be the 50% fib of the 09′ low to high. This could be a good place for bulls to try and re-establish longs. If this fails, there is a relatively small kumo below and the 61.8% at 1.3485. Breaks beyond this are not good for the EURUS which does not have another price base until about 1.3000 and 1.2500 which was the relative low for 09′. If you are thinking of getting long, a healthy amount of caution is advised an confirmation for the bulls will not come till a break and close above the 20ema.

GBPUSD
Stuck inside the weekly kumo, the pair is about to exit it since it goes twister style by early feb. Until that happens, we feel the structure is not pretty and the wide range between 1.7000 and 1.5700 should dominate. However, keep in mind the pair declined for 6 straight weeks and only recovered last week with a little bounce. With all the lines going flat, momentum is in neither direction so heavy positions are risky at this point. The picture gets more complex until mid April where price will find a mild support from the kumo or the flat bottom will be resistance. Overall, the picture is messy.

AUDUSD
Finding solid support off the 20ema, the pair now has to contend with the Tenkan which is flat and should offer some upside resistance at .9069. Day traders can take an aggressive short here targeting the 20ema at .8827. After this, we have the yearly highs for those feeling bearish on the aussie just above around .9400. Only the 20ema is climbing so we could see a range build between 8800 and 9400 for a little bit. However, we feel any major dips to the Kijun or Kumo top become good buying opportunities for another long term move up to 9400 and possibly parity. The kumo keeps rising and does so at a strong pace so support will continually want lift this pair for at least the first half of 2010.

USDCAD
Hemmed in by the 20ema on the weekly charts, the only sensible thing to do is sell just below it targeting 1.0400 or buy around 1.0200 but price is forming a short term wedge which is not a favorable price action formation to be trading, especially since we are over 80% into it so risk is increasing while reward is decreasing as the formation continues on.

NZDUSD
First to break down and the first to go more corrective than impulsive in the breakdown against the USD, the pair had a very structured decline which was relatively corrective in nature with a little more gusto in the downside than the upside - the pair has not found support off the 20ema and bounced about 190pips since then and is making a case to push through the Tenkan. The corrective wedge structure has a top about another 100pips above and a break of this level aims for a push back to .7630 (09′ high) and would suggest we have a short term base in at .7000 for bulls to take longs if price gets there again. Any dips have to first take out the 20ema and then the flat Kijun which would take a good deal of elbow grease, however breaks below these levels should find support around .6500 where price should climb higher for the first half of 2010. Line of least resistance in the short term is mixed but medium term is to the upside.

Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He has built Ichimoku Systems for Institutions and is at the forefront of Ichimoku models and analysis.  For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com