Weekly Ichimoku Analysis Oct. 26th+
EURUSD
Since its weekly close above the 20ema in early May 09′ and the Kumo break later that month, the pair has yet to post two weekly closes back to back. In fact, out of 28 weeks, the pair has only closed down 10 posting a 65% weekly up close for the last 6months. Currently its riding a 3 week wave of higher closes and our analysis points to a higher close.
The pair is showing more comfort everyday above the 1.5000 handle which is very different than when it attempted to wear the clothes of 1.60 more comfortable only lasting a day above and then getting slammed the following. We feel the more time above 1.5000, the more the market will realize its ok there and will start to make a base there for a launch higher.
Kumo analysis says unless there is an apocalyptic drop from here, the base above 1.36 and 1.40 is in place and the pair will likely use any dips there to launch another attack on 1.50 and 1.60. The three amigos (Tenkan / 20ema / Kijun) are all in order and pretty much climbing so should support on any dips. Price has not closed below the Tenkan since late April and has used it as a springboard for more buying and higher prices. A break here may make the bulls question their long positions but a 20ema would be more convincing and possibly create a technical event to sell. However, we feel this is unlikely and people will overall want to be buying Euros of Greenbacks.
GBPUSDStarting off last week like a champ, the pair was threatening to close above the 1.6650 area and gain 300pips on the week which would have been impressive. However the pair had to take some bad news on the chin and in the gut when GDP was announced as a contraction with 30+bloomberg analysts all calling for a .2% increase. Traders dumped pounds by the kilos as the pair reacted as badly to the news as someone getting bitten by a Black Mamba snake while opening a letter from the IRS saying their being audited - in other words, the pair suffered badly. Dropping almost 2cents in a matter of an hour, the pair ended the week closing down instead of up and all the efforts by the bulls were annihilated.
We think this will create either two likely scenarios;A) traders will have digested the news and overall feel better about being long the GBP than the USD
or
B) the stink from the dreaded GDP numbers will be too much to not notice in the room and traders will not be really interested in being long GBP so may pile into EUR/GBP longs or just sell GBP’s as a whole. We are more in the latter camp if the pair does not come out of the gate this week with a stiff jab, strong right cross followed by an uppercut that lands on the chin.
Technically the pair does have some strong support (not from price) but moreso from the 20ema and the Tenkan which are flat and below. This could be a technical reason for traders to get long and would be a good pricing with the Kijun climbing wanting to come to the party. Any close below the 20ema will likely erode the confidence of bulls and likely see a fair amount of longs exit sending hte pari back to 1.60 and below to test the support in the 1.58/59 region. Caution advised on building heavy longs.
AUDUSDStill climbing, still gaining week after week, the pair continues to post gains albeit small ones. With only 4 out of the last 12 weekly gains only being at or outside the weekly ATR, it appears as if only heavy longs are being added when the pair finds itself near the weekly Tenkan or daily 20ema. Other than that, we feel its simply momentum, combined with the fact nobody really wants to be long USD vs. AUD and that AUD is likely in an increasing rate cycle the pair is marching on. We feel the march will go on but that 95 or perhaps parity could be what Russia was to Napoleon - too far an advance without the supplies to support the troop effort.
Based on the pattern, we prefer only buying on a dip early in the week or after a weekly close down (as long as its not drastic or outside the weekly ATR). The pair has shown an affinity to dip each week only to end up closing higher with only 7 weekly closes down since breaking above the kumo while only 5 out of 14 up closes did not have a dip at least 1/3 into the previous weekly range.
USDCADPosting its 1st weekly close outside of the previous weeks range for the first time in over two months, the pair looks set to test the weekly Tenkan where a close above will likely give it enough lift to attack the 20ema, something that has not been touched since the beginning of July. All three amigos (Tenkan/20ema/Kijun) which will make any upside surges pass some tests before convincing traders the pair is going long. Overall though the short term lift off the lows this year appear to be for real as we have good momentum divergence coming into the bounce. Another weekly close up, especially outside of the previous weeks range would suggest the bounce is for real and the 20ema is next up to bat for the longer term bears.
Anyone wanting to go long could trade a break outside last weeks high or take a 61.8% dip of the previous weekly range which is right about the open for the last week.
NZDUSDUnder appreciated by the news and analysts across the board, the Kiwi has been more stable against the greenback than any other pair out there, even the more popular AUD with its fancy rate increase. Still only having 1 weekly close down since the Kumo break, the pair is posting smaller retracements and larger gains in relationship to the ATR than its big brother AUD.
The pair breezed through the 61.8% & 78.6% fibs of the 2008 drop and momentum is still hanging around the upper regions so we feel the pair will likely gain this week. Upper resistance levels to watch are last weeks high around .7645 and .7900. After that, we feel .8000 will be under serious threat if the garrison of spears and shields waiting for them there are breached. Beyond that, there is not much left except the 2008 highs just above .8200 so bears are running out of real-estate to hold their ground.
Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com
USDCAD wanting to break 1.0500
For the first time in a long time the USDCAD is about to do the following;
1) close above the previous weeks high (last time was early August 09′)
2) have a daily close above the Tenkan line (daily chart - last time was Oct. 1st 09′)
3) close inside the kumo on the 4hr chart (last time was Oct. 4th)
All of this is happening today and with a vengeance. Why do I use such strong language? Because its the most recent price action, particularly the last 4hr candle which is the cause of all this. This is the single largest top-bottom 4hr candle in the last 90days so it stands out in my book. Anything that happens once in every 90days stands out in my book (particularly meeting with my accountant to do the quarterly taxes - again an event which happens only once in every 90days).
Thus, in the short term, this is one of the hottest seats at the Blackjack table.
Starting at the weekly chart, you can see the pair is really threatening to post a close above the previous weekly high for the first time in a few months, but what is more interesting is the price action causing this. Last week the pair attempted to form a bottom at 1.0200. This week, in attempting to re-visit that bottom, we fell way short and formed a higher high. The current candle is above the previous weeks high with two strong wicks to the downside suggesting the rejection zone could be the real McCoy. If we get continued follow up buying this week, we could also be creating another reversal candle such as a morning star formation - all supporting the same look - the short term bullish outlook.
Moving down to the Daily charts, the pair is also threatening to close above the Tenkan line for the first time this month. On top of that, its in the same day pushing up against the 20ema. This candle would support the overall short term bullish structure and simply confirm the 1.0200 bottom is not wearing a bullish costume but charging down the streets of Pamplona, Span in July looking to put its horns into some person running with more adrenaline than a 1st time Sky Driver who is afraid of heights and has no life insurance plan. On top of that, the upcoming Kumo is rather anemic suggesting there is a window opening for the bulls to push past the Kumo resistance giving them more ground to trample on.
Lastly, on the 4hr chart, we have the 1st close inside the Kumo. Notice how price has been below it since the 1.0800 level and most of its time being enlisted below the 20ema and Kijun. This long term pattern has just been interrupted by the most recent 4hr candle which has taken out all of them and ventured into the Kumo. This further confirms the bulls short term efforts and with the two white lines (acting like field goal posts) present an area where price is most likely to break which could represent a trend change. However, the fact the Kumo is declining during that stretch is not a good sign because it would mean the support of the Kumo is falling thus bringing the floor lower instead of rising (which is what we want in an upward break). Thus, any kumo breaks in this region should be treated with caution because they may want to gravitate towards the flat top ahead. We feel this would be a much better region to enter longs as it happens to coincide with a role reversal level and previous ceiling for the pair.
Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com
Weekly Ichimoku Report Oct. 12th
EURUSD
Threatening to take out the 2009 highs (only 3 weeks ago so not that dramatic), the EURUSD is nothing but bullish as it remains above the Tenkan and has not posted a close below the line on the weekly charts since late April this year. The only way you do that is with continual steady buying for the pair. Dips have been minor and the bears have at best posted two weeks of declines in a row while bulls have been winning the fight once it cleared the Kumo. The challenging part about this pair is on a weekly basis, there are wicks on both sides of the fence so dips and rejections are all over the place. Anyone holding the pair more than a day is likely to get whipsawed so for medium term swing players, buying on a dip during the week or for sellers, selling on a rejection is your best bet however with the overall play above the Tenkan line being so consistent, bears have probably been vomiting losses like the girl in exorcist (the original) so unless you got the stomach for it (or vomiting losses), we suggest buying.
If the technical tooth fairy comes, then a dip or pong off the Tenkan is the play. Breaks have only worked out 2 weeks out of the last 24 so the Vegas odds are not in your favor buying breaks.
GBPUSD
Selling off for the last 4 weeks on a closing basis, again more downside is envisioned (without the use of a crystal ball) should the pair break the weekly Kijun (red line). If that happens, we expect technical selling on the pair to increase and like selling off the 20ema as a rejection play (weekly chart).
As time goes on, the GBPUSD is getting replaced by the EURUSD 2.0 which is outpacing it in beating up the USD. In fact, the GBP and USD are in an almost deadlock as to who is going to win this contest of horns. Ultimately, we do not favor the USD against much, except perhaps the Iraqi Dinar and the Indian Rupee for the rest of this year, but I digress.
Getting back to the Ichimoku, the lines are becoming more flat and compressed but still sloping downward showing the pressure to the downside has not abated. The flat Kumo top could act as the rear guard for this pair should it break the 20ema and Tenkan to the upside. Another failed attempt here would intimate the pair will likely head back down and stay inside the cloud for the remainder of the year. The Kumo has a thick hide so should a break and close occur on either side, we expect the following move to be strong.
Based on this kumo formation, we would be surprised if the pair breaks the 1.6850 (kumo top) to 1.45 range for the rest of the year. If I were a betting man (only am in Vegas - blackjack or roulette), then I’d lay more chips on this pair breaking the lower belly of the kumo. Regardless, for this week you have the key levels to watch.
AUDUSD
A simpleton these days, the AUDUSD has been relentless in its attack on the greenback climbing 15 of the last 23 weeks (65.7% kill ratio) and only posting one close below the Tenkan in the same amount of time. Anyone looking to sell this pair at any time soon should be questioned to see if they recently suffered any head trauma or were hit by a truck. The pair has only mounted a total of 8 selling weeks since the uptrend started back in march (32weeks ago) and has climbed for a consecutive 8.5months (including this month). How could you not be making money on this trend?
Since we have quickly concluded with any selling notions, the question comes as to where/how to buy into this trend. Options:
1) dips to the 20ema (daily chart)
2) touch of the tenkan (weekly chart)
3) any weekly retracement to the 38.2% or 50% fibs of the prior weeks price action with stops below the previous weekly lows (a strategy that has worked 9 out of 11x)
Kumo formations like this suggest continued uptrend and likely for the rest of the year.
As long as the tenkan/20ema/kijun lines hold this relative structure, the AUD will keep punishing the USD. Add in the surprise rate hike by the RBA and you have all the spices for more upside.
USDCAD
Finally doing something interesting, the pair broke below the slow downward dribble it was in and in one week, posted its largest open/close drop since July while taking out barriers at 1.0500. Although the Momentum is wanting to disagree with this downtrend, we do not see much reprieve for bulls until a close above the 20ema (weekly charts) prints. In fact, any attacks at the 20ema (as long as they are engulfing the previous candle) could be treated as a rejection play for more downside.
The kumo is sloping downward at an aggressive angle and unless this pair starts to ravage the upside (which we put those odds around the same as getting hit by lightning twice, or the Chicago Cubs winning a World Series in the next 3 years – no offense to Cubs fans, I’m from Chicago and would love them to win, just being realistic), then the pair should likely close below 1.1500 for the year and the 1Q outlook for this pair suggests bulls will have a tough time making any headway until mid 2010.
Riddle me this: Which pair has climbed for the last 12 out of 13 weeks against the USD?
If you answered with an Antipodean pair like the NZDUSD, you guessed right. Yep, 12 out of 13 weeks. Not even Tiger Woods has won that many tournaments in a row. Under the radar while the AUDUSD has been making all the headlines, this pair has posted an impressive 25 out of 33 weekly up-closes and only lost ground 4 weeks in the last 20. The trend is so strong it cannot even touch its twinkle-toes on the Tenkan line. In fact, it has not touched it since July 17th (ironically my birthday) which is awefully impressive. Unless someone comes in with a Trump size account, we could not be paid to sell this pair for any ransom.
This is one of the few pairs where buying on breaks has worked out as long as you can hold till the end of the week. Buying on the weekly open has also worked well (remember the 12/13 stat?) but small to medium retracements have been offered every week save 2 in the last 13 so we’ll look for the dip as a buying opportunity. Unless this pair runs into King Leonidus and the Spartans at Thermopylae, this trend should continue rolling.
Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com
Wanting to Buy AUDUSD sometime this week? Consult the statistics first
In case you were kidnapped, heavily inebriated or on prescription drugs for the last, oh say 33 weeks, the AUDUSD has been in an uptrend. On top of that, they recently did something no other central bank has done lately - raise their interest rates. This has separated them from the rest of them and added nitro to the trend. But, the question has to be asked, is there more to this uptrend? If so, should be buying into the rest of the week now that we have hit hump day?
Statistically speaking - No!
Lets get into the numbers which suggest why we should not be buying.
Since March 6th of this year, the pair has had 31 weeks of price action behind it
7 losers
24 winners
Do we want to be buying as our general approach to the AUDUSD?
Verdict = Yes
Average weekly range (high to low) for those 31 weeks = 341pips
High value = 452
Low value = 135
# of weeks it has closed above the 341 avg. = 20 (65%)
Current weekly range = 314pips
Difference to the avg. = 27pips
Difference to the High = 138pips
Thus, if we were to this week hit or equal the weekly high, there is a potential for 138pips of profit…not bad, but downside risk is well over 200pips.
What is more interesting is how price has been behaving as of late. Thus, we present exhibit A which is the weekly chart on the AUDUSD
Notice how the pair has behaved in the beginning of the uptrend. The candles were closer towards the highs and much larger in high/low range.
However as of late, the closes have been much closer to the opens with the open/close gains being smaller (current week excluded). Also, there are wicks or retracements on every single week (except one on sept. 11th week) since the week ending July 31st (over 9 weeks ago). Thus, statistically, 88% of the time the pair has retraced on any given week suggesting waiting for a pullback before entering has been the way to play.
Now take a look at exhibit B, a graphical representation of how many pips the pair has averaged (weekly basis) outside or above the 341pip avg. and how much below.
The weeks of the trend are from left to right with week 1 being March 6th. The numbers on the y-axis represent in 10s of pips (.001 = 10 pips) how many pips the week was able to post above the the statistical average.
Notice in the beginning of the chart, the line is above 0, showing the pair was producing weekly ranges .002 (20pips) outside the weekly average range from high to low.
Not surprising as the trend has some good power once it clears the weekly 20ema. However, notice how the line falls off and on a week to week basis, the ranges have been getting smaller suggesting the trend is losing steam. Not necessarily that its changing, but just that we should expect to make less on a weekly basis out of the pair, particularly on an open to closing basis. Important to know.
Thus, considering that only out of 24 positive weekly closes, none of them since July 17th have closed above the weekly average (341pips) and the current week has already moved 314pips,
do we really want to be adding on large positions around the current levels on the AUDUSD?
Verdict = No
Solution = statistics say wait for a pullback before buying.
Chris Capre is the current Fund Manager for White Knight Investments (http://whiteknightfxi.com/). He specializes in the technical aspects of trading particularly using Ichimoku, Momentum, Bollinger Band, Pivot and Price Action models to trade the markets. He is considered to be at the cutting edge of Technical Analysis and is well regarded for his Ichimoku Analysis, along with building trading systems and Risk Reduction in trading applications. For more information about his services or his company, visit http://2ndskiesforex.com